Analisis Integrasi Dan Volatilitas Harga Beras Regional Asean Terhadap Pasar Beras Indonesia

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Lampiran 4.1. Ekspor Beras Beberapa Negara di Asia Tenggara

  (000 ton) Tahun Rata- Negara/ Regional

  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Rata Indonesia 0,7 0,9 42,3 1,0 1,6 0,9 2,6 0,3 0,4 0,9 735,7

  72 Philipina

  13

  13

  

1

  1

  1

  1

  2

  3 Thailand 7.552 10.137 7.274 7.376 9.557 10.011 8.570 9.047 10.647 6.945 8.000 8.647 Vietnam 3.795 4.295 5.174 4.705 4.522 4.649 5.950 6.734 7.000 7.717 7.400 5.631 Asean 11.348 14.446 12.490 12.082 14.094 14.662 14.524 15.782 17.648 14.665 16.136 14.352 Total Dunia 27.540 27.253 28.957 29.102 31.922 29.575 29.398 31.569 36.221 39.060 37.420 31.638 Sumber: BPS (2014) dan USDA (2013)

Lampiran 4.2. Impor Beras Beberapa Negara di Asia Tenggara (000 ton)

  Tahun Rata- Negara/Regional

  Rata 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Indonesia 1.429 237 190 438 1.396 289 250 688 2.744 1.927 244 894 Philippina 1.300 1.100 1.890 1.791 1.900 2.500 2.000 2.400 1.200 1.500 1.500 1.735

  • Thailand

  2

  3 8 300 300 200 600 400 165 Vietnam 40 300 320 350 450 300 500 400 500 100 200 315 Asean 2.769 1.637 2.400 2.581 3.749 3.097 3.050 3.788 4.644 4.127 2.344 3.108

  Total Dunia 27.540 27.253 28.957 29.102 31.922 29.575 29.398 31.569 36.221 39.060 37.420 31.638 Sumber: BPS (2014) dan USDA (2013)

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 4.3. Koefisien Spesialisasi Perdagangan Beras di Asia Tenggara

  Tahun Rata- Negara/ Regional

  Rata 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Indonesia (0,999) (0,992) (0,635) (0,996) (0,998) (0,994) (0,979) (0,999) (1,000) (0,999) 0,502 (0,826) Philipina (1,000) (0,977) (1,000) (1,000) (0,986) (0,999) (0,999) (0,999) (0,998) (0,997) (1,000) (0,996)

  Thailand 1,000 1,000 1,000 0,999 0,999 0,998 0,932 0,936 0,963 0,841 0,905 0,961 Vietnam 0,979 0,869 0,884 0,862 0,819 0,879 0,845 0,888 0,867 0,974 0,947 0,892 Sumber: BPS (2014) dan USDA (2013), diolah

Lampiran 4.4. Ekspor Beras Negara Asia Tenggara Tahun 2005-2013

  dalam USD

  Tahun Negara/ Komoditas

  Rata-Rata Regional 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Indonesia Beras 8.657.507 531.437 471.501 864.652 1.814.312 451.624 836.730 1.186.729 1.191.376 1.946.823

  Serealia 20.678.360 8.151.942 32.705.046 47.611.412 22.360.482 19.916.615 10.327.186 20.267.488 11.925.064 23.107.292

Philipina Beras 28.872 134.249 535.020 3.084.134 607.925 851.095 2.161.993 1.267.701 1.800.885 1.057.613

Serealia 184.641 747.677 1.073.829 4.040.878 1.437.187 928.782 2.205.396 1.420.378 3.115.209 1.516.913 Thailand Beras 2.321.681.918 2.579.059.721 3.470.015.325

  • 6.107.572.102 5.046.463.708 5.341.082.404 6.507.473.018 4.632.269.629 4.481.906.885 Serealia 2.358.550.222 2.657.415.921 3.592.411.336 6.341.027.779 5.302.412.803 5.496.742.212 6.686.701.568 7.157.654.519 4.633.608.834
  • Vietnam Beras 1.408.378.694 1.275.895.486 2.895.938.232
  • 1.490.179.695 2.666.061.830 3.249.501.657

  1.855.136.513 Serealia 1.857.844.280

  • Dunia Beras 10.045.790.856 10.397.796.817 13.189.634.241 21.049.566.346 18.368.146.063 19.153.703.749 18.555.239.255 32.541.041.049 24.270.727.794 15.822.839.618

    Serealia 44.208.763.497 49.520.463.187 72.196.133.627 104.030.396.312 76.796.298.459 80.787.333.709 106.922.183.599 167.251.130.810 149.100.312.242 76.351.653.199

  Sumber: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (2014), diolah

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 4.5. Revealed Competitive Advantage (RCA) Beras Negara Asia Tenggara Tahun 2005-2013

  Negara/ Regional Tahun

  Rata-Rata 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Indonesia 1,84 0,31 0,08 0,09 0,34 0,10 0,47 0,30 0,61 0,46 Philippines 0,69 0,86 2,73 3,77 1,77 3,87 5,65 4,59 3,55 2,76 Thailand 4,33 4,62 5,29 4,76 3,98 4,10 5,61 3,33 4,67 Vietnam 4,39 4,75 5,46 4,93 4,18 4,22 4,66

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Manila Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  Sep-05 352 374 10,228 4,277 107 5,042 Oct-05 343 365 10,101 4,139 103 4,879 Nov-05 346 368 10,063 4,150 104 4,892 Dec-05 353 375 9,860 4,150 104 4,892

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Biro Statistik Pertanian Philipina (2014) Keterangan :

  

3)

(Rp.

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Philipina 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  7 Jan-03 302 324 8,876 3,305 83 3,896 Feb-03 299 321 8,905 3,285 82 3,873 Mar-03 296 318 8,908 3,261 82 3,844 Apr-03 311 333 8,675 3,315 83 3,908 May-03 317 339 8,279 3,241 81 3,820 Jun-03 317 339 8,285 3,242 81 3,822 Jul-03 322 344 8,505 3,355 84 3,954 Aug-03 315 337 8,535 3,304 83 3,895 Sep-03 304 326 8,389 3,164 79 3,729 Oct-03 296 318 8,495 3,127 78 3,686 Nov-03 289 311 8,537 3,086 77 3,638 Dec-03 290 312 8,465 3,071 77 3,620 Jan-04 294 316 8,441 3,095 77 3,648 Feb-04 293 315 8,447 3,090 77 3,642 Mar-04 298 320 8,575 3,173 79 3,740 Apr-04 307 329 8,606 3,261 82 3,844 May-04 311 333 9,210 3,501 88 4,126 Jun-04 320 342 9,415 3,646 91 4,297 Jul-04 327 349 9,350 3,695 92 4,356 Aug-04 329 351 9,328 3,706 93 4,368 Sep-04 316 338 9,328 3,579 89 4,219 Oct-04 302 324 9,170 3,399 85 4,006 Nov-04 300 322 9,016 3,334 83 3,930 Dec-04 308 330 9,290 3,492 87 4,116 Jan-05 315 337 9,207 3,553 89 4,189 Feb-05 326 348 9,244 3,670 92 4,327 Mar-05 336 358 9,367 3,806 95 4,487 Apr-05 353 375 9,532 4,024 101 4,743

  6

  5

  4

  3

  2

  1

  May-05 361 383 9,481 4,083 102 4,813 Jun-05 359 381 9,616 4,116 103 4,851 Jul-05 360 382 9,800 4,195 105 4,945 Aug-05 365 387 9,977 4,307 108 5,077

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Manila

  

3)

(Rp.

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Feb-08 539 561 9,179 5,604 140 6,605 Mar-08 572 594 9,194 5,914 148 6,971 Apr-08 672 694 9,209 6,845 171 8,068 May-08 687 709 9,291 7,039 176 8,297

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Biro Statistik Pertanian Philipina (2014) Keterangan :

  Oct-08 542 564 10,048 6,117 153 7,211 Nov-08 518 540 11,711 6,779 169 7,991 Dec-08 532 554 11,325 6,725 168 7,927

  Jun-08 768 790 9,296 7,792 195 9,185 Jul-08 734 756 9,163 7,380 185 8,699 Aug-08 662 684 9,149 6,706 168 7,905 Sep-08 574 596 9,341 6,021 151 7,097

  Oct-07 479 501 9,107 5,013 125 5,909 Nov-07 490 512 9,264 5,196 130 6,125 Dec-07 512 534 9,334 5,436 136 6,408 Jan-08 529 551 9,406 5,634 141 6,641

  2

  Jun-07 445 467 9,363 4,827 121 5,689 Jul-07 457 479 9,019 4,768 119 5,620 Aug-07 458 480 9,091 4,815 120 5,676 Sep-07 464 486 9,142 4,896 122 5,771

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Philipina 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  Oct-06 384 406 9,192 4,178 104 4,925 Nov-06 383 405 9,130 4,148 104 4,889 Dec-06 389 411 9,092 4,183 105 4,930 Jan-07 398 420 9,071 4,262 107 5,024

  Jun-06 374 396 9,363 4,161 104 4,905 Jul-06 381 403 9,137 4,130 103 4,868 Aug-06 386 408 9,091 4,163 104 4,907 Sep-06 385 407 9,142 4,166 104 4,911

  7 Jan-06 363 385 9,481 4,102 103 4,835 Feb-06 372 394 9,481 4,183 105 4,930 Mar-06 381 403 9,158 4,142 104 4,882 Apr-06 382 404 8,931 4,057 101 4,782 May-06 380 402 8,981 4,057 101 4,783

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Feb-07 407 429 9,066 4,335 108 5,110 Mar-07 417 439 9,151 4,463 112 5,261 Apr-07 426 448 9,103 4,526 113 5,335 May-07 436 458 8,981 4,567 114 5,383

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Manila

  

3)

(Rp.

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Feb-11 660 682 8,913 6,078 152 7,164 Mar-11 664 686 8,761 6,007 150 7,081 Apr-11 673 695 8,651 6,459 161 7,613 May-11 677 699 8,556 6,435 161 7,585

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Biro Statistik Pertanian Philipina (2014) Keterangan :

  Oct-11 672 694 8,895 6,628 166 7,812 Nov-11 679 701 9,015 6,773 169 7,984 Dec-11 678 700 9,088 6,809 170 8,026

  Jun-11 674 696 8,564 6,415 160 7,561 Jul-11 684 706 8,533 6,470 162 7,627 Aug-11 693 715 8,532 6,547 164 7,717 Sep-11 682 704 8,766 6,620 166 7,804

  Oct-10 643 665 8,928 6,386 160 7,528 Nov-10 640 662 8,938 6,368 159 7,507 Dec-10 640 662 9,024 6,424 161 7,572 Jan-11 647 669 9,036 6,045 151 7,126

  2

  Jun-10 615 637 9,164 6,288 157 7,412 Jul-10 618 640 9,049 6,244 156 7,360 Aug-10 634 656 8,972 6,338 158 7,471 Sep-10 640 662 8,976 6,390 160 7,532

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Philipina 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  Oct-09 585 607 9,480 6,205 155 7,314 Nov-09 589 611 9,470 6,238 156 7,353 Dec-09 601 623 9,458 6,346 159 7,481 Jan-10 617 639 9,275 6,379 159 7,520

  Jun-09 606 628 10,207 6,860 171 8,086 Jul-09 597 619 10,111 6,704 168 7,902 Aug-09 584 606 9,978 6,495 162 7,656 Sep-09 571 593 9,702 6,208 155 7,317

  7 Jan-09 559 581 11,167 6,941 174 8,181 Feb-09 604 626 11,853 7,867 197 9,273 Mar-09 604 626 11,850 7,871 197 9,277 Apr-09 604 626 11,025 7,347 184 8,660 May-09 613 635 10,393 7,049 176 8,309

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Feb-10 624 646 9,348 6,487 162 7,647 Mar-10 633 655 9,174 6,462 162 7,617 Apr-10 644 666 9,027 6,458 161 7,613 May-10 622 644 9,183 6,360 159 7,496

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Manila

  

3)

(Rp.

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Jun-13 707 729 9,882 7,655 191 9,023 Jul-13 728 750 10,073 8,007 200 9,438 Aug-13 750 772 10,573 8,612 215 10,152 Sep-13 776 798 11,346 9,501 238 11,199

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Biro Statistik Pertanian Philipina (2014) Keterangan :

  Oct-13 775 797 11,367 9,505 238 11,204 Nov-13 770 792 11,613 9,651 241 11,376 Dec-13 775 797 12,087 10,078 252 11,879

  Feb-13 732 754 9,687 7,751 194 9,136 Mar-13 730 752 9,709 7,747 194 9,131 Apr-13 722 744 9,724 7,686 192 9,060 May-13 722 744 9,761 7,713 193 9,092

  2

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Philipina 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  Jun-12 705 727 9,451 7,324 183 8,633 Jul-12 726 748 9,457 7,525 188 8,870 Aug-12 726 748 9,500 7,559 189 8,911 Sep-12 724 746 9,566 7,587 190 8,944

  7 Jan-12 682 704 9,109 6,863 172 8,090 Feb-12 698 720 9,026 6,945 174 8,186 Mar-12 698 720 9,165 7,048 176 8,308 Apr-12 701 723 9,176 7,085 177 8,352 May-12 701 723 9,290 7,165 179 8,446

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Oct-12 722 744 9,597 7,586 190 8,942 Nov-12 727 749 9,646 7,673 192 9,045 Dec-12 728 750 9,646 7,686 192 9,060 Jan-13 732 754 9,687 7,753 194 9,139

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Bangkok

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  

3)

(Rp. US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Thailand 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  1

  2

  3

  4

  5

  6

  7 Jan-03 185 207 8,876 2,270 57 2,675 Feb-03 182 204 8,905 2,247 56 2,648 Mar-03 180 202 8,908 2,232 56 2,631 Apr-03 179 201 8,675 2,170 54 2,558 May-03 181 203 8,279 2,109 53 2,485 Jun-03 186 208 8,285 2,155 54 2,540 Jul-03 182 204 8,505 2,167 54 2,555 Aug-03 179 201 8,535 2,141 54 2,524 Sep-03 180 202 8,389 2,125 53 2,504 Oct-03 182 204 8,495 2,159 54 2,545 Nov-03 180 202 8,537 2,153 54 2,538 Dec-03 186 208 8,465 2,186 55 2,577 Jan-04 198 220 8,441 2,287 57 2,696 Feb-04 200 222 8,447 2,305 58 2,717 Mar-04 226 248 8,575 2,553 64 3,009 Apr-04 229 251 8,606 2,592 65 3,056 May-04 222 244 9,210 2,677 67 3,156 Jun-04 220 242 9,415 2,706 68 3,190 Jul-04 221 243 9,350 2,702 68 3,185 Aug-04 228 250 9,328 2,764 69 3,258 Sep-04 225 247 9,328 2,729 68 3,217 Oct-04 230 252 9,170 2,743 69 3,233 Nov-04 245 267 9,016 2,835 71 3,342 Dec-04 262 284 9,290 3,066 77 3,614 Jan-05 269 291 9,207 3,126 78 3,684 Feb-05 271 293 9,244 3,154 79 3,718 Mar-05 273 295 9,367 3,209 80 3,782 Apr-05 276 298 9,532 3,293 82 3,882 May-05 273 295 9,481 3,243 81 3,823 Jun-05 263 285 9,616 3,186 80 3,755 Jul-05 257 279 9,800 3,179 79 3,748 Aug-05 261 283 9,977 3,278 82 3,863 Sep-05 264 286 10,228 3,378 84 3,981 Oct-05 265 287 10,101 3,351 84 3,950 Nov-05 257 279 10,063 3,260 82 3,843 Dec-05 257 279 9,860 3,201 80 3,773

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Worldbank (2014) Keterangan :

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  3)

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Bangkok

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Oct-08 488 510 10,048 5,569 139 6,565 Nov-08 440 462 11,711 5,863 147 6,911 Dec-08 422 444 11,325 5,478 137 6,457

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Worldbank (2014) Keterangan :

  Jun-08 646 668 9,296 6,664 167 7,855 Jul-08 700 722 9,163 7,066 177 8,329 Aug-08 658 680 9,149 6,667 167 7,858 Sep-08 651 673 9,341 6,736 168 7,941

  2

  

3)

(Rp. US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Thailand 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  7 Jan-06 266 288 9,481 3,183 80 3,752 Feb-06 275 297 9,481 3,263 82 3,847 Mar-06 275 297 9,158 3,165 79 3,731 Apr-06 272 294 8,931 3,071 77 3,620 May-06 276 298 8,981 3,126 78 3,685 Jun-06 281 303 9,363 3,282 82 3,869 Jul-06 287 309 9,137 3,270 82 3,854 Aug-06 284 306 9,091 3,235 81 3,813 Sep-06 283 305 9,142 3,236 81 3,815 Oct-06 275 297 9,192 3,178 79 3,746 Nov-06 273 295 9,130 3,146 79 3,708 Dec-06 280 302 9,092 3,198 80 3,770 Jan-07 287 309 9,071 3,349 84 3,948 Feb-07 292 314 9,066 3,395 85 4,001 Mar-07 299 321 9,151 3,490 87 4,114 Apr-07 296 318 9,103 3,445 86 4,060 May-07 296 318 8,981 3,404 85 4,013 Jun-07 301 323 9,363 3,570 89 4,208 Jul-07 307 329 9,019 3,516 88 4,144 Aug-07 307 329 9,091 3,536 88 4,168 Sep-07 306 328 9,142 3,551 89 4,186 Oct-07 313 335 9,107 3,605 90 4,249 Nov-07 328 350 9,264 3,790 95 4,468 Dec-07 347 369 9,334 3,897 97 4,594 Jan-08 364 386 9,406 4,085 102 4,815

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Feb-08 440 462 9,179 4,689 117 5,527 Mar-08 486 508 9,194 5,120 128 6,036 Apr-08 532 554 9,209 5,554 139 6,546 May-08 593 615 9,291 6,164 154 7,266

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Bangkok

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Feb-11 473 495 8,913 4,412 110 5,200 Mar-11 456 478 8,761 4,184 105 4,931 Apr-11 448 470 8,651 4,518 113 5,326 May-11 448 470 8,556 4,475 112 5,274

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Worldbank (2014) Keterangan :

  Oct-11 560 582 8,895 5,629 141 6,635 Nov-11 584 606 9,015 5,915 148 6,973 Dec-11 566 588 9,088 5,789 145 6,824

  Jun-11 474 496 8,564 4,696 117 5,535 Jul-11 507 529 8,533 4,962 124 5,849 Aug-11 534 556 8,532 5,192 130 6,120 Sep-11 556 578 8,766 5,512 138 6,497

  Oct-10 457 479 8,928 4,726 118 5,571 Nov-10 478 500 8,938 4,915 123 5,793 Dec-10 480 502 9,024 4,978 124 5,868 Jan-11 468 490 9,036 4,424 111 5,215

  2

  

3)

(Rp. US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Thailand 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  Feb-10 475 497 9,348 5,093 127 6,003 Mar-10 446 468 9,174 4,740 118 5,587 Apr-10 409 431 9,027 4,338 108 5,113 May-10 397 419 9,183 4,295 107 5,062

  Oct-09 413 435 9,480 4,572 114 5,389 Nov-09 460 482 9,470 5,017 125 5,914 Dec-09 515 537 9,458 5,531 138 6,520 Jan-10 511 533 9,275 5,390 135 6,354

  Jun-09 476 498 10,207 5,533 138 6,522 Jul-09 464 486 10,111 5,359 134 6,317 Aug-09 433 455 9,978 4,987 125 5,879 Sep-09 428 450 9,702 4,816 120 5,677

  7 Jan-09 464 486 11,167 5,877 147 6,928 Feb-09 473 495 11,853 6,314 158 7,443 Mar-09 472 494 11,850 6,298 157 7,423 Apr-09 446 468 11,025 5,610 140 6,612 May-09 454 476 10,393 5,397 135 6,362

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Jun-10 392 414 9,164 4,244 106 5,002 Jul-10 396 418 9,049 4,229 106 4,985 Aug-10 412 434 8,972 4,344 109 5,120 Sep-10 448 470 8,976 4,669 117 5,503

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Bangkok

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Jun-13 484 506 9,882 5,448 136 6,421 Jul-13 454 476 10,073 5,245 131 6,182 Aug-13 425 447 10,573 5,176 129 6,101 Sep-13 428 450 11,346 5,556 139 6,549

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Worldbank (2014) Keterangan :

  Oct-13 423 445 11,367 5,508 138 6,493 Nov-13 405 427 11,613 5,409 135 6,376 Dec-13 399 421 12,087 5,535 138 6,524

  Feb-13 539 561 9,687 5,882 147 6,933 Mar-13 535 557 9,709 5,858 146 6,905 Apr-13 536 558 9,724 5,872 147 6,922 May-13 509 531 9,761 5,631 141 6,637

  2

  

3)

(Rp. US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Thailand 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  Jun-12 578 600 9,451 6,121 153 7,215 Jul-12 555 577 9,457 5,906 148 6,962 Aug-12 545 567 9,500 5,836 146 6,880 Sep-12 544 566 9,566 5,862 147 6,910

  7 Jan-12 534 556 9,109 5,515 138 6,500 Feb-12 529 551 9,026 5,423 136 6,393 Mar-12 544 566 9,165 5,641 141 6,650 Apr-12 551 573 9,176 5,705 143 6,724 May-12 553 575 9,290 5,794 145 6,830

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Oct-12 533 555 9,597 5,772 144 6,803 Nov-12 530 552 9,646 5,775 144 6,807 Dec-12 530 552 9,646 5,775 144 6,807 Jan-13 540 562 9,687 5,894 147 6,948

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Hanoi

  

3)

(Rp.

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  2

  3

  4

  5

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Vietnam 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  7 Jan-03 161 183 8,876 2,054 51 2,422 Feb-03 159 181 8,905 2,042 51 2,407 Mar-03 162 184 8,908 2,069 52 2,439 Apr-03 163 185 8,675 2,035 51 2,399 May-03 169 191 8,279 2,011 50 2,371 Jun-03 167 189 8,285 1,996 50 2,353 Jul-03 162 184 8,505 1,995 50 2,352 Aug-03 162 184 8,535 2,000 50 2,358 Sep-03 168 190 8,389 2,024 51 2,386 Oct-03 173 195 8,495 2,087 52 2,459 Nov-03 180 202 8,537 2,154 54 2,540 Dec-03 185 207 8,465 2,182 55 2,572 Jan-04 183 205 8,441 2,160 54 2,547 Feb-04 186 208 8,447 2,187 55 2,578 Mar-04 213 235 8,575 2,445 61 2,882 Apr-04 223 245 8,606 2,539 63 2,992 May-04 223 245 9,210 2,686 67 3,167 Jun-04 222 244 9,415 2,727 68 3,215 Jul-04 217 239 9,350 2,665 67 3,141 Aug-04 220 242 9,328 2,687 67 3,168 Sep-04 212 234 9,328 2,613 65 3,080 Oct-04 209 231 9,170 2,548 64 3,004 Nov-04 219 241 9,016 2,603 65 3,068 Dec-04 224 246 9,290 2,715 68 3,201 Jan-05 240 262 9,207 2,862 72 3,374 Feb-05 248 270 9,244 2,946 74 3,472 Mar-05 251 273 9,367 3,007 75 3,545 Apr-05 244 266 9,532 2,986 75 3,519 May-05 238 260 9,481 2,915 73 3,436 Jun-05 224 246 9,616 2,816 70 3,319 Jul-05 220 242 9,800 2,822 71 3,326 Aug-05 238 260 9,977 3,044 76 3,588 Sep-05 236 258 10,228 3,089 77 3,641 Oct-05 245 267 10,101 3,147 79 3,710 Nov-05 240 262 10,063 3,086 77 3,638 Dec-05 242 264 9,860 3,053 76 3,599 Jan-06 244 266 9,481 2,972 74 3,503

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari data Economic Research Service USDA (2013) Keterangan :

  1) Harga FOB Hanoi

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  3)

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  6

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  7 Feb-06 245 267 9,481 2,981 75 3,514 Mar-06 237 259 9,158 2,822 71 3,326 Apr-06 221 243 8,931 2,620 66 3,089 May-06 239 261 8,981 2,794 70 3,294 Jun-06 243 265 9,363 2,931 73 3,455 Jul-06 243 265 9,137 2,871 72 3,385 Aug-06 247 269 9,091 2,895 72 3,413 Sep-06 249 271 9,142 2,927 73 3,451 Oct-06 253 275 9,192 2,978 74 3,510 Nov-06 280 302 9,130 3,207 80 3,781 Dec-06 281 303 9,092 3,207 80 3,780 Jan-07 281 303 9,071 3,299 82 3,888 Feb-07 283 305 9,066 3,311 83 3,902 Mar-07 282 304 9,151 3,332 83 3,927 Apr-07 285 307 9,103 3,344 84 3,942 May-07 285 307 8,981 3,307 83 3,898 Jun-07 285 307 9,363 3,425 86 4,037 Jul-07 289 311 9,019 3,355 84 3,955 Aug-07 295 317 9,091 3,432 86 4,045 Sep-07 300 322 9,142 3,494 87 4,118 Oct-07 311 333 9,107 3,580 90 4,220 Nov-07 327 349 9,264 3,779 94 4,454 Dec-07 340 362 9,334 3,826 96 4,510 Jan-08 353 375 9,406 3,977 99 4,688

  

3)

(Rp.

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Vietnam 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  1

  2

  3

  4

  5

  6

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Hanoi

Feb-08 323 345 9,179 3,618 90 4,265 Mar-08 336 358 9,194 3,745 94 4,414 Apr-08 328 350 9,209 3,674 92 4,330 May-08 320 342 9,291 3,625 91 4,273 Jun-08 380 402 9,296 4,184 105 4,932 Jul-08 371 393 9,163 4,055 101 4,779 Aug-08 397 419 9,149 4,285 107 5,051

  Sep-08 423 445 9,341 4,607 115 5,430 Oct-08 375 397 10,048 4,439 111 5,233 Nov-08 313 335 11,711 4,373 109 5,155 Dec-08 318 340 11,325 4,300 108 5,069 Jan-09 328 350 11,167 4,359 109 5,138

Feb-09 325 347 11,853 4,557 114 5,372 Mar-09 331 353 11,850 4,633 116 5,461

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  3)

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  1) Harga FOB Hanoi

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari data Economic Research Service USDA (2013) Keterangan :

  • *) Data yang dicetak tebal merupakan hasil Interpolasi

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

Dec-09 370 392 9,458 4,157 104 4,901 Jan-10 376 398 9,275 4,142 104 4,882

  Sep-10 418 440 8,976 4,399 110 5,186 Oct-10 432 454 8,928 4,503 113 5,308 Nov-10 454 476 8,938 4,705 118 5,546 Dec-10 460 482 9,024 4,800 120 5,658

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

   Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT) 3)

   Harga FOB Hanoi 2)

  Keterangan : 1)

  May-12 384 406 9,290 4,222 106 4,976 Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari data Economic Research Service USDA (2013)

  Jan-12 419 441 9,109 4,467 112 5,266 Feb-12 399 421 9,026 4,250 106 5,010 Mar-12 386 408 9,165 4,189 105 4,938 Apr-12 388 410 9,176 4,212 105 4,965

  Sep-11 508 530 8,766 5,096 127 6,007 Oct-11 516 538 8,895 5,236 131 6,172 Nov-11 511 533 9,015 5,255 131 6,194 Dec-11 465 487 9,088 4,876 122 5,748

  May-11 439 461 8,556 4,394 110 5,180 Jun-11 430 452 8,564 4,321 108 5,093 Jul-11 470 492 8,533 4,648 116 5,479 Aug-11 513 535 8,532 5,015 125 5,911

  Jan-11 440 462 9,036 4,175 104 4,921 Feb-11 431 453 8,913 4,037 101 4,759 Mar-11 418 440 8,761 3,855 96 4,544 Apr-11 440 462 8,651 4,447 111 5,242

  Feb-10 382 404 9,348 4,227 106 4,982 Mar-10 361 383 9,174 3,964 99 4,672 Apr-10 330 352 9,027 3,628 91 4,276 May-10 328 350 9,183 3,664 92 4,319 Jun-10 331 353 9,164 3,685 92 4,344 Jul-10 329 351 9,049 3,626 91 4,274 Aug-10 375 397 8,972 4,012 100 4,729

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Hanoi

  Nov-09 405 427 9,470 4,494 112 5,297

  Aug-09 333 355 9,978 3,992 100 4,706 Sep-09 330 352 9,702 3,865 97 4,556 Oct-09 358 380 9,480 4,052 101 4,777

  7 Apr-09 337 359 11,025 4,405 110 5,193 May-09 343 365 10,393 4,242 106 5,000 Jun-09 349 371 10,207 4,237 106 4,994 Jul-09 346 368 10,111 4,171 104 4,917

  6

  5

  4

  3

  2

  1

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Vietnam 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  

3)

(Rp.

  • *) Data yang dicetak tebal merupakan hasil Interpolasi

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Hanoi

  

3)

(Rp.

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Sep-13 349 371 11,346 4,659 116 5,492 Oct-13 382 404 11,367 5,042 126 5,944 Nov-13 382 404 11,613 5,142 129 6,061 Dec-13 398 420 12,087 5,527 138 6,514

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Hanoi

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari data Economic Research Service USDA (2013) Keterangan :

  May-13 356 378 9,761 4,140 103 4,880 Jun-13 356 378 9,882 4,185 105 4,933 Jul-13 358 380 10,073 4,278 107 5,043 Aug-13 368 390 10,573 4,573 114 5,391

  2

  Jan-13 375 397 9,687 4,296 107 5,064 Feb-13 366 388 9,687 4,208 105 4,961 Mar-13 368 390 9,709 4,237 106 4,994 Apr-13 360 382 9,724 4,165 104 4,909

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Vietnam 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  7 Jun-12 373 395 9,451 4,183 105 4,931 Jul-12 374 396 9,457 4,195 105 4,945 Aug-12 406 428 9,500 4,516 113 5,323

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Sep-12 423 445 9,566 4,707 118 5,548 Oct-12 416 438 9,597 4,654 116 5,485 Nov-12 419 441 9,646 4,704 118 5,545 Dec-12 387 409 9,646 4,395 110 5,181

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RIDOM pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RIDOM has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 2 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.201661 0.9342 Test critical values: 1% level -3.481623

  5% level -2.883930 10% level -2.578788

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIDOM) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:25 Sample (adjusted): 2003M04 2013M12 Included observations: 129 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RIDOM(-1) -0.001820 0.009027 -0.201661 0.8405

D(RIDOM(-1)) 0.374679 0.087496 4.282253 0.0000

D(RIDOM(-2)) -0.218987 0.088266 -2.480986 0.0144

C 43.90657 47.50613 0.924230 0.3571

  R-squared 0.137495 Mean dependent var 40.74419 Adjusted R-squared 0.116795 S.D. dependent var 205.7755 S.E. of regression 193.3857 Akaike info criterion 13.39777 Sum squared resid 4674756. Schwarz criterion 13.48644 Log likelihood -860.1560 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.43380 F-statistic 6.642243 Durbin-Watson stat 2.064636 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000337

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RIDOM pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RIDOM has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.843215 0.0173 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

  5% level -3.444756 10% level -3.147221

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIDOM) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:28 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RIDOM(-1) -0.132975 0.034600 -3.843215 0.0002 D(RIDOM(-1)) 0.359093 0.081606 4.400324 0.0000 C 234.4420 66.35033 3.533395 0.0006

@TREND(2003M01) 6.747602 1.755185 3.844383 0.0002

  R-squared 0.189810 Mean dependent var 40.43077 Adjusted R-squared 0.170520 S.D. dependent var 205.0075 S.E. of regression 186.7122 Akaike info criterion 13.32730 Sum squared resid 4392544. Schwarz criterion 13.41553 Log likelihood -862.2745 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.36315 F-statistic 9.839713 Durbin-Watson stat 1.894516 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000007

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RIPHI pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RIPHI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 0.158617 0.9689 Test critical values: 1% level -3.481217

  5% level -2.883753 10% level -2.578694

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIPHI) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:29 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RIPHI(-1) 0.001846 0.011639 0.158617 0.8742 D(RIPHI(-1)) 0.342627 0.085705 3.997762 0.0001 C 29.71947 79.15446 0.375462 0.7079 R-squared 0.116939 Mean dependent var 61.58462

  Adjusted R-squared 0.103032 S.D. dependent var 272.5581 S.E. of regression 258.1354 Akaike info criterion 13.96765 Sum squared resid 8462502. Schwarz criterion 14.03383 Log likelihood -904.8974 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.99454 F-statistic 8.408952 Durbin-Watson stat 1.912633 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000372

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RIPHI pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RIPHI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.370703 0.3931 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

  5% level -3.444756 10% level -3.147221

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIPHI) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:31 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RIPHI(-1) -0.075786 0.031968 -2.370703 0.0193 D(RIPHI(-1)) 0.383476 0.085288 4.496267 0.0000 C 250.2788 114.8761 2.178684 0.0312

@TREND(2003M01) 4.331251 1.666612 2.598836 0.0105

  R-squared 0.161865 Mean dependent var 61.58462 Adjusted R-squared 0.141910 S.D. dependent var 272.5581 S.E. of regression 252.4792 Akaike info criterion 13.93082 Sum squared resid 8031966. Schwarz criterion 14.01905 Log likelihood -901.5034 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.96667 F-statistic 8.111272 Durbin-Watson stat 1.935640 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000056

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RITHA pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RITHA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.553896 0.5032 Test critical values: 1% level -3.481217

  5% level -2.883753 10% level -2.578694

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RITHA) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:34 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RITHA(-1) -0.023765 0.015294 -1.553896 0.1227 D(RITHA(-1)) 0.220586 0.086067 2.562958 0.0115 C 143.5170 80.75823 1.777119 0.0779 R-squared 0.063184 Mean dependent var 29.81538

  Adjusted R-squared 0.048431 S.D. dependent var 280.2984 S.E. of regression 273.4266 Akaike info criterion 14.08275 Sum squared resid 9494786. Schwarz criterion 14.14892 Log likelihood -912.3787 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.10964 F-statistic 4.282812 Durbin-Watson stat 2.079540 Prob(F-statistic) 0.015850

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RITHA pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RITHA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 2 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.864562 0.1776 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030729

  5% level -3.445030 10% level -3.147382

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RITHA) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:35 Sample (adjusted): 2003M04 2013M12 Included observations: 129 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RITHA(-1) -0.083542 0.029164 -2.864562 0.0049 D(RITHA(-1)) 0.208660 0.086639 2.408371 0.0175 D(RITHA(-2)) 0.224883 0.088017 2.554978 0.0118 C 256.8545 91.05070 2.821005 0.0056

  

@TREND(2003M01) 2.745753 1.219104 2.252272 0.0261

R-squared 0.131458 Mean dependent var 30.17829

Adjusted R-squared 0.103440 S.D. dependent var 281.3605

S.E. of regression 266.4114 Akaike info criterion 14.04595

Sum squared resid 8800904. Schwarz criterion 14.15679

Log likelihood -900.9637 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.09099

F-statistic 4.691992 Durbin-Watson stat 1.928663

Prob(F-statistic) 0.001467

Lampiran 4.3. Hasil Unit Root RIVIE pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RIVIE has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.879464 0.7921 Test critical values: 1% level -3.480818

  5% level -2.883579 10% level -2.578601

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIVIE) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:37 Sample (adjusted): 2003M02 2013M12 Included observations: 131 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RIVIE(-1) -0.016001 0.018195 -0.879464 0.3808 C 99.49393 79.85002 1.246010 0.2150 R-squared 0.005960 Mean dependent var 31.23664 Adjusted R-squared -0.001746 S.D. dependent var 214.6537 S.E. of regression 214.8410 Akaike info criterion 13.59282 Sum squared resid 5954208. Schwarz criterion 13.63672 Log likelihood -888.3299 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.61066 F-statistic 0.773456 Durbin-Watson stat 1.639524 Prob(F-statistic) 0.380785

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RIVIE pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RIVIE has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.462955 0.0478 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

  5% level -3.444756 10% level -3.147221

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIVIE) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:39 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RIVIE(-1) -0.152737 0.044106 -3.462955 0.0007 D(RIVIE(-1)) 0.238300 0.088074 2.705687 0.0078 C 418.4018 121.0334 3.456912 0.0007

@TREND(2003M01) 3.913028 1.196113 3.271454 0.0014

  

R-squared 0.110596 Mean dependent var 31.59231

Adjusted R-squared 0.089420 S.D. dependent var 215.4453

S.E. of regression 205.5872 Akaike info criterion 13.51990

Sum squared resid 5325529. Schwarz criterion 13.60814

Log likelihood -874.7937 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.55576

F-statistic 5.222659 Durbin-Watson stat 2.012504

Prob(F-statistic) 0.001972

Lampiran 4.8. Hasil Unit Root RIDOM pada First Difference Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: D(RIDOM) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.267163 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.481623

  5% level -2.883930 10% level -2.578788

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIDOM,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:45 Sample (adjusted): 2003M04 2013M12 Included observations: 129 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  D(RIDOM(-1)) -0.847301 0.102490 -8.267163 0.0000 D(RIDOM(-1),2) 0.221035 0.087345 2.530583 0.0126 C 35.00288 17.46742 2.003895 0.0472

R-squared 0.378617 Mean dependent var 0.844961

  

Adjusted R-squared 0.368754 S.D. dependent var 242.4742

S.E. of regression 192.6481 Akaike info criterion 13.38259

Sum squared resid 4676277. Schwarz criterion 13.44910

Log likelihood -860.1770 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.40961

F-statistic 38.38680 Durbin-Watson stat 2.066337

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 4.8. Hasil Unit Root RIDOM pada First Difference Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: D(RIDOM) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.264825 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030729

  5% level -3.445030 10% level -3.147382

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIDOM,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:47 Sample (adjusted): 2003M04 2013M12 Included observations: 129 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  

D(RIDOM(-1)) -0.851428 0.103018 -8.264825 0.0000

D(RIDOM(-1),2) 0.223530 0.087689 2.549141 0.0120

C 17.63864 35.06885 0.502972 0.6159

@TREND(2003M01) 0.261684 0.457868 0.571528 0.5687

  R-squared 0.380237 Mean dependent var 0.844961 Adjusted R-squared 0.365363 S.D. dependent var 242.4742 S.E. of regression 193.1650 Akaike info criterion 13.39548 Sum squared resid 4664089. Schwarz criterion 13.48416 Log likelihood -860.0087 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.43151 F-statistic 25.56332 Durbin-Watson stat 2.069243 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 4.8. Hasil Unit Root RIPHI pada First Difference Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: D(RIPHI) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.804927 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.481217

  5% level -2.883753 10% level -2.578694

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIPHI,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:48 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  D(RIPHI(-1)) -0.654857 0.083903 -7.804927 0.0000 C 41.72563 23.06449 1.809085 0.0728

R-squared 0.322453 Mean dependent var 4.046154

Adjusted R-squared 0.317160 S.D. dependent var 311.1917

S.E. of regression 257.1505 Akaike info criterion 13.95247

Sum squared resid 8464178. Schwarz criterion 13.99658

Log likelihood -904.9102 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.97039

F-statistic 60.91689 Durbin-Watson stat 1.913099

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 4.8. Hasil Unit Root RIPHI pada First Difference Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: D(RIPHI) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.877021 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

  5% level -3.444756 10% level -3.147221

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIPHI,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:50 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  D(RIPHI(-1)) -0.664441 0.084352 -7.877021 0.0000 C -0.232504 45.87292 -0.005068 0.9960

@TREND(2003M01) 0.639242 0.604216 1.057968 0.2921

R-squared 0.328373 Mean dependent var 4.046154

  Adjusted R-squared 0.317796 S.D. dependent var 311.1917 S.E. of regression 257.0308 Akaike info criterion 13.95908 Sum squared resid 8390232. Schwarz criterion 14.02525 Log likelihood -904.3399 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.98596 F-statistic 31.04648 Durbin-Watson stat 1.912908 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 4.8. Hasil Unit Root RITHA pada First Difference Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: D(RITHA) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -9.106649 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.481217

  5% level -2.883753 10% level -2.578694

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RITHA,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:51 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  D(RITHA(-1)) -0.786875 0.086407 -9.106649 0.0000 C 23.74788 24.23840 0.979763 0.3291

R-squared 0.393167 Mean dependent var 1.346154

Adjusted R-squared 0.388426 S.D. dependent var 351.5627

S.E. of regression 274.9333 Akaike info criterion 14.08620

Sum squared resid 9675306. Schwarz criterion 14.13032

Log likelihood -913.6029 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.10412

F-statistic 82.93106 Durbin-Watson stat 2.070371

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 4.8. Hasil Unit Root RITHA pada First Difference Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: D(RITHA) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -9.085977 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

  5% level -3.444756 10% level -3.147221

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RITHA,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:52 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  D(RITHA(-1)) -0.788592 0.086792 -9.085977 0.0000 C 41.26689 49.43579 0.834757 0.4054

@TREND(2003M01) -0.262709 0.645430 -0.407029 0.6847

R-squared 0.393957 Mean dependent var 1.346154

  Adjusted R-squared 0.384413 S.D. dependent var 351.5627 S.E. of regression 275.8337 Akaike info criterion 14.10028 Sum squared resid 9662701. Schwarz criterion 14.16645 Log likelihood -913.5182 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.12717 F-statistic 41.27809 Durbin-Watson stat 2.069079 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 4.8. Hasil Unit Root RIVIE pada First Difference Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: D(RIVIE) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -9.459622 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.481217

  5% level -2.883753 10% level -2.578694

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIVIE,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:53 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  D(RIVIE(-1)) -0.837871 0.088573 -9.459622 0.0000 C 27.05395 18.88940 1.432229 0.1545 R-squared 0.411452 Mean dependent var 3.600000 Adjusted R-squared 0.406854 S.D. dependent var 277.2268 S.E. of regression 213.5089 Akaike info criterion 13.58050 Sum squared resid 5835016. Schwarz criterion 13.62462 Log likelihood -880.7325 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.59843 F-statistic 89.48444 Durbin-Watson stat 1.971125 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 4.8. Hasil Unit Root RIVIE pada First Difference Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: D(RIVIE) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -9.423941 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

  5% level -3.444756 10% level -3.147221

  • MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIVIE,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:54 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  D(RIVIE(-1)) -0.837806 0.088902 -9.423941 0.0000 C 19.08228 38.33161 0.497821 0.6195

@TREND(2003M01) 0.119847 0.500855 0.239285 0.8113

R-squared 0.411717 Mean dependent var 3.600000

  Adjusted R-squared 0.402453 S.D. dependent var 277.2268 S.E. of regression 214.2996 Akaike info criterion 13.59543 Sum squared resid 5832386. Schwarz criterion 13.66161 Log likelihood -880.7032 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.62232 F-statistic 44.44131 Durbin-Watson stat 1.972125 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 4.9. Hasil Pengujian Lag Optimal

  VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE Exogenous variables: C Date: 04/26/14 Time: 08:38 Sample: 2003M01 2013M12 Included observations: 124

  Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ

  • 4003.146 NA 1.38e+23 64.63139 64.72237 64.66835 1 -3392.851 1171.373 9.47e+18 55.04599 55.50087* 55.23077

  

2 -3363.568 54.31530* 7.65e+18* 54.83175* 55.65054 55.16436*

3 -3349.003 26.07713 7.85e+18 54.85488 56.03758 55.33532 4 -3338.414 18.27328 8.59e+18 54.94217 56.48877 55.57044 5 -3330.063 13.87396 9.78e+18 55.06553 56.97605 55.84163 6 -3316.882 21.04804 1.03e+19 55.11099 57.38541 56.03492 7 -3305.454 17.51010 1.13e+19 55.18474 57.82307 56.25649 8 -3293.423 17.65873 1.22e+19 55.24875 58.25099 56.46833

  • indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level) FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion

Lampiran 4.10. Hasil Estimasi Model VAR

  Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 04/26/14 Time: 08:40 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] LAG RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

  

RIDOM(-1) 1.288589 0.110986 0.177221 0.178441

(0.08654) (0.11279) (0.11652) (0.08939) [ 14.8895] [ 0.98404] [ 1.52089] [ 1.99623]

  

RIDOM(-2) -0.332426 -0.048645 -0.168509 -0.179717

(0.08848) (0.11531) (0.11913) (0.09139) [-3.75722] [-0.42188] [-1.41453] [-1.96658]

  RIPHI(-1) -0.021400 1.351392 0.296962 -0.006807 (0.07445) (0.09703) (0.10024) (0.07690) [-0.28743]

  [ 13.9280] [ 2.96242] [-0.08852] RIPHI(-2) 0.067688 -0.394542 -0.279385 0.119010

  (0.07935) (0.10341) (0.10683) (0.08196) [ 0.85307] [-3.81544] [-2.61513]

  [ 1.45214]

RITHA(-1) 0.070502 -0.079967 1.020466 0.038493

(0.07418) (0.09668) (0.09988) (0.07662) [ 0.95035] [-0.82713] [ 10.2165] [ 0.50236]

  

RITHA(-2) -0.122235 0.054869 -0.096606 -0.088916

(0.07744) (0.10092) (0.10427) (0.07999) [-1.57847] [ 0.54368] [-0.92654] [-1.11166] RIVIE(-1) -0.058021 -0.063435 0.042324 1.025688

  (0.09342) (0.12175) (0.12578) (0.09649) [-0.62108] [-0.52104] [ 0.33649] [ 10.6300] RIVIE(-2) 0.127464 0.080101 -0.008800 -0.170586 (0.09393) (0.12241) (0.12647) (0.09701)

  [ 1.35706] [ 0.65437] [-0.06958] [-1.75835] C -92.93635 72.06571 86.19198 166.5088 (89.6750) (116.867) (120.741) (92.6232) [-1.03637] [ 0.61665] [ 0.71386] [ 1.79770]

  R-squared 0.990217 0.984990 0.973231 0.963653 Adj. R-squared 0.989570 0.983998 0.971461 0.961250 Sum sq. resids 4679734. 7948096. 8483680. 4992495.

  S.E. equation 196.6609 256.2942 264.7887 203.1263 F-statistic 1530.955 992.5355 549.8984 401.0058 Log likelihood -866.3911 -900.8211 -905.0598 -870.5963 Akaike AIC 13.46756 13.99725 14.06246 13.53225 Schwarz SC 13.66608 14.19577 14.26098 13.73077 Mean dependent 4981.823 6643.077 5078.454 4311.477 S.D. dependent 1925.680 2026.031 1567.411 1031.885 Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 4.90E+18 Determinant resid covariance

  3.68E+18 Log likelihood -3516.515 Akaike information criterion 54.65408 Schwarz criterion 55.44816

  Estimation Proc: =============================== LS 1 2 RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE @ C

  VAR Model: =============================== RIDOM = C(1,1)*RIDOM(-1) + C(1,2)*RIDOM(-2) + C(1,3)*RIPHI(-1) + C(1,4)*RIPHI(-2) + C(1,5)*RITHA(-1) + C(1,6)*RITHA(-2) + C(1,7)*RIVIE(-1)

  • C(1,8)*RIVIE(-2) + C(1,9) RIPHI = C(2,1)*RIDOM(-1) + C(2,2)*RIDOM(-2) + C(2,3)*RIPHI(-1) + C(2,4)*RIPHI(-2) + C(2,5)*RITHA(-1) + C(2,6)*RITHA(-2) + C(2,7)*RIVIE(-1)
  • C(2,8)*RIVIE(-2) + C(2,9) RITHA = C(3,1)*RIDOM(-1) + C(3,2)*RIDOM(-2) + C(3,3)*RIPHI(-1) + C(3,4)*RIPHI(-2) + C(3,5)*RITHA(-1) + C(3,6)*RITHA(-2) + C(3,7)*RIVIE(-1)
  • C(3,8)*RIVIE(-2) + C(3,9) RIVIE = C(4,1)*RIDOM(-1) + C(4,2)*RIDOM(-2) + C(4,3)*RIPHI(-1) + C(4,4)*RIPHI(-2) + C(4,5)*RITHA(-1) + C(4,6)*RITHA(-2) + C(4,7)*RIVIE(-1)
  • C(4,8)*RIVIE(-2) + C(4,9)

  VAR Model - Substituted Coefficients: =============================== RIDOM = 1.28858920657*RIDOM(-1) - 0.332425640319*RIDOM(-2) - 0.0213996243937*RIPHI(-1) + 0.0676881879923*RIPHI(-2) + 0.0705015257031*RITHA(-1) - 0.122235263788*RITHA(-2) - 0.0580206168935*RIVIE(-1) + 0.127464227981*RIVIE(-2) - 92.9363484886 RIPHI = 0.110986209953*RIDOM(-1) - 0.0486454012679*RIDOM(-2) + 1.35139181858*RIPHI(-1) - 0.394542004912*RIPHI(-2) - 0.0799667363982*RITHA(-1) + 0.0548691520494*RITHA(-2) - 0.0634347253363*RIVIE(-1) + 0.0801005977939*RIVIE(-2) + 72.0657105344 RITHA = 0.177220961096*RIDOM(-1) - 0.168508891171*RIDOM(-2) + 0.29696201188*RIPHI(-1) - 0.279384506826*RIPHI(-2) + 1.02046644081*RITHA(-1) - 0.0966062575588*RITHA(-2) + 0.0423242218521*RIVIE(-1) - 0.00879962736664*RIVIE(-2) + 86.1919767416 RIVIE = 0.178440952594*RIDOM(-1) - 0.17971679734*RIDOM(-2) - 0.00680736588061*RIPHI(-1) + 0.119010017598*RIPHI(-2) + 0.0384926953804*RITHA(-1) - 0.0889160822795*RITHA(-2) + 1.02568768456*RIVIE(-1) - 0.170585715262*RIVIE(-2) + 166.508839241

Lampiran 4 .11. Hasil Granger Causality Test (p=2)

  Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 04/26/14 Time: 08:42 Sample: 2003M01 2013M12 Lags: 2 Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob. RIPHI does not Granger Cause RIDOM 130 0.64528 0.5263 RIDOM does not Granger Cause RIPHI 3.22948 0.0429 RITHA does not Granger Cause RIDOM 130 0.44393 0.6425 RIDOM does not Granger Cause RITHA 2.35009 0.0996 RIVIE does not Granger Cause RIDOM 130 1.12644 0.3275 RIDOM does not Granger Cause RIVIE 3.92109 0.0223 RITHA does not Granger Cause RIPHI 130 0.67263 0.5122 RIPHI does not Granger Cause RITHA 5.66926 0.0044 RIVIE does not Granger Cause RIPHI 130 0.61884 0.5402 RIPHI does not Granger Cause RIVIE 6.00038 0.0032 RIVIE does not Granger Cause RITHA 130 1.33339 0.2673 RITHA does not Granger Cause RIVIE 0.67615 0.5104

Lampiran 4.12. Impuls Respons Harga Beras Indonesia (RIDOM)

  Response of RIDOM: Period RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 1 196.6609 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000

  2 253.3870 -2.427045 14.02944 -10.48324 3 262.3215 12.23622 9.605118 -0.446309 4 256.7868 28.35182 -2.009687 16.59914 5 247.2418 43.03251 -15.99258 33.21455 6 236.7189 57.01301 -31.06998 46.82559 7 226.1450 70.92204 -46.81263 56.98684 8 215.9462 84.81741 -62.85505 64.03176 9 206.4375 98.44598 -78.80824 68.51124

  10 197.8743 111.4863 -94.31420 70.98317 11 190.4417 123.6706 -109.0901 71.94437 12 184.2467 134.8229 -122.9425 71.81524 13 179.3253 144.8581 -135.7621 70.94198 14 175.6549 153.7655 -147.5093 69.60361 15 173.1701 161.5893 -158.1985 68.02008 16 171.7765 168.4118 -167.8831 66.36017 17 171.3628 174.3385 -176.6426 64.74916 18 171.8102 179.4871 -184.5723 63.27595 19 172.9997 183.9789 -191.7750 61.99964 20 174.8169 187.9325 -198.3551 60.95550 21 177.1559 191.4596 -204.4137 60.16018 22 179.9211 194.6622 -210.0461 59.61629 23 183.0286 197.6309 -215.3391 59.31622 24 186.4061 200.4443 -220.3704 59.24538 25 189.9931 203.1692 -225.2080 59.38472 26 193.7399 205.8609 -229.9105 59.71282 27 197.6069 208.5642 -234.5271 60.20744 28 201.5631 211.3144 -239.0987 60.84666 29 205.5855 214.1387 -243.6587 61.60972 30 209.6573 217.0571 -248.2337 62.47757 31 213.7675 220.0836 -252.8447 63.43317 32 217.9093 223.2275 -257.5077 64.46163 33 222.0797 226.4940 -262.2349 65.55024 34 226.2781 229.8856 -267.0351 66.68840 35 230.5061 233.4024 -271.9145 67.86746 36 234.7668 237.0429 -276.8775 69.08055 37 239.0642 240.8046 -281.9270 70.32233 38 243.4029 244.6843 -287.0648 71.58888 39 247.7879 248.6787 -292.2918 72.87737 40 252.2241 252.7840 -297.6088 74.18596 41 256.7166 256.9971 -303.0162 75.51358 42 261.2698 261.3149 -308.5143 76.85975 43 265.8884 265.7346 -314.1035 78.22450 44 270.5764 270.2541 -319.7843 79.60818 45 275.3376 274.8714 -325.5574 81.01141 46 280.1755 279.5852 -331.4237 82.43499 47 285.0932 284.3945 -337.3843 83.87981 48 290.0935 289.2988 -343.4404 85.34684 49 295.1792 294.2979 -349.5936 86.83704 50 300.3525 299.3919 -355.8456 88.35138

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.12. Impuls Respons Harga Beras Indonesia (RIDOM)

  Response of RIDOM: Period RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 51 305.6157 304.5812 -362.1982 89.89080

  52 310.9710 309.8665 -368.6534 91.45619 53 316.4202 315.2486 -375.2134 93.04841 54 321.9652 320.7288 -381.8803 94.66826 55 327.6078 326.3082 -388.6566 96.31650 56 333.3498 331.9881 -395.5445 97.99385 57 339.1929 337.7700 -402.5465 99.70097 58 345.1389 343.6556 -409.6651 101.4385 59 351.1895 349.6464 -416.9028 103.2071 60 357.3465 355.7442 -424.2621 105.0073 61 363.6116 361.9507 -431.7457 106.8397 62 369.9868 368.2677 -439.3561 108.7048 63 376.4737 374.6971 -447.0960 110.6033 64 383.0744 381.2407 -454.9679 112.5357 65 389.7908 387.9006 -462.9746 114.5025 66 396.6248 394.6786 -471.1186 116.5043 67 403.5784 401.5768 -479.4027 118.5416 68 410.6538 408.5973 -487.8295 120.6151 69 417.8531 415.7420 -496.4019 122.7254 70 425.1783 423.0130 -505.1225 124.8730 71 432.6317 430.4127 -513.9941 127.0585 72 440.2156 437.9430 -523.0196 129.2827 73 447.9322 445.6063 -532.2017 131.5460 74 455.7838 453.4047 -541.5434 133.8493 75 463.7729 461.3407 -551.0475 136.1931 76 471.9018 469.4166 -560.7171 138.5781 77 480.1730 477.6346 -570.5551 141.0051 78 488.5891 485.9974 -580.5646 143.4748 79 497.1525 494.5073 -590.7486 145.9879 80 505.8658 503.1670 -601.1102 148.5451 81 514.7317 511.9789 -611.6528 151.1472 82 523.7529 520.9456 -622.3793 153.7950 83 532.9321 530.0700 -633.2933 156.4893 84 542.2721 539.3547 -644.3979 159.2308 85 551.7757 548.8024 -655.6966 162.0205 86 561.4457 558.4160 -667.1928 164.8591 87 571.2852 568.1985 -678.8900 167.7475 88 581.2970 578.1526 -690.7918 170.6866 89 591.4843 588.2814 -702.9018 173.6772 90 601.8500 598.5879 -715.2237 176.7202 91 612.3973 609.0753 -727.7611 179.8167 92 623.1295 619.7467 -740.5180 182.9674 93 634.0497 630.6052 -753.4981 186.1733 94 645.1612 641.6542 -766.7055 189.4355 95 656.4674 652.8970 -780.1441 192.7549 96 667.9717 664.3369 -793.8179 196.1325 97 679.6777 675.9774 -807.7312 199.5693 98 691.5887 687.8220 -821.8882 203.0663 99 703.7084 699.8744 -836.2930 206.6246

  100 716.0406 712.1380 -850.9501 210.2453 101 728.5888 724.6166 -865.8640 213.9295 102 741.3569 737.3140 -881.0390 217.6783

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.12. Impuls Respons Harga Beras Indonesia (RIDOM)

  Response of RIDOM: Period RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 103 754.3487 750.2339 -896.4799 221.4928

  104 767.5682 763.3804 -912.1913 225.3741 105 781.0194 776.7573 -928.1779 229.3234 106 794.7062 790.3687 -944.4445 233.3420 107 808.6329 804.2186 -960.9961 237.4310 108 822.8037 818.3113 -977.8377 241.5917 109 837.2228 832.6511 -994.9744 245.8253 110 851.8945 847.2421 -1012.411 250.1331 111 866.8234 862.0889 -1030.154 254.5164 112 882.0138 877.1960 -1048.207 258.9765 113 897.4705 892.5677 -1066.577 263.5148 114 913.1980 908.2089 -1085.268 268.1326 115 929.2012 924.1243 -1104.287 272.8314 116 945.4847 940.3185 -1123.639 277.6125 117 962.0537 956.7966 -1143.330 282.4774 118 978.9129 973.5635 -1163.367 287.4275 119 996.0676 990.6242 -1183.754 292.4644 120 1013.523 1007.984 -1204.499 297.5896 121 1031.284 1025.648 -1225.607 302.8046 122 1049.357 1043.621 -1247.085 308.1109 123 1067.746 1061.910 -1268.940 313.5103 124 1086.457 1080.519 -1291.177 319.0043 125 1105.497 1099.454 -1313.804 324.5946 126 1124.870 1118.721 -1336.828 330.2828 127 1144.582 1138.325 -1360.255 336.0707 128 1164.640 1158.274 -1384.092 341.9601 129 1185.049 1178.571 -1408.348 347.9527 130 1205.816 1199.225 -1433.028 354.0502 131 1226.947 1220.240 -1458.141 360.2547 132 1248.449 1241.624 -1483.694 366.5678

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lampiran 4.13. Impuls Respons Harga Beras Philipina (RIPHI)

  Period RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 1 9.792372 256.1071 0.000000 0.000000 2 31.57531 333.4249 -22.86116 -11.46147 3 51.73287 341.1575 -35.80760 -14.54715 4 71.57950 324.7585 -41.49760 -10.12345 5 90.90041 301.7774 -44.10727 -2.337462 6 108.6304 279.2131 -46.35469 6.351766 7 124.0165 259.6309 -49.59146 14.87715 8 136.8317 243.6659 -54.29174 22.82101 9 147.2143 231.1660 -60.46835 30.01846

  10 155.4809 221.7074 -67.93135 36.40447 11 162.0029 214.8106 -76.42331 41.96449 12 167.1434 210.0218 -85.68202 46.71836 13 171.2294 206.9387 -95.46687 50.71214 14 174.5423 205.2154 -105.5684 54.01093 15 177.3175 204.5605 -115.8108 56.69201 16 179.7470 204.7324 -126.0511 58.83867 17 181.9840 205.5347 -136.1769 60.53520 18 184.1476 206.8103 -146.1037 61.86302 19 186.3274 208.4363 -155.7710 62.89806 20 188.5886 210.3191 -165.1395 63.70902 21 190.9762 212.3895 -174.1871 64.35646 22 193.5189 214.5980 -182.9063 64.89252 23 196.2326 216.9111 -191.3006 65.36101 24 199.1237 219.3077 -199.3821 65.79789 25 202.1913 221.7764 -207.1695 66.23192 26 205.4297 224.3127 -214.6856 66.68546 27 208.8298 226.9169 -221.9560 67.17528 28 212.3810 229.5928 -229.0077 67.71340 29 216.0715 232.3462 -235.8681 68.30791 30 219.8899 235.1836 -242.5640 68.96369 31 223.8252 238.1121 -249.1213 69.68309 32 227.8674 241.1383 -255.5643 70.46652 33 232.0077 244.2684 -261.9158 71.31299 34 236.2386 247.5077 -268.1967 72.22048 35 240.5540 250.8604 -274.4261 73.18634 36 244.9490 254.3302 -280.6211 74.20754 37 249.4201 257.9195 -286.7972 75.28092 38 253.9647 261.6301 -292.9683 76.40332 39 258.5813 265.4632 -299.1466 77.57175 40 263.2692 269.4191 -305.3431 78.78342 41 268.0283 273.4978 -311.5677 80.03583 42 272.8594 277.6990 -317.8289 81.32678 43 277.7634 282.0220 -324.1346 82.65439 44 282.7420 286.4660 -330.4918 84.01707 45 287.7967 291.0300 -336.9069 85.41356 46 292.9297 295.7131 -343.3855 86.84283 47 298.1430 300.5144 -349.9331 88.30413 48 303.4388 305.4330 -356.5546 89.79691 49 308.8195 310.4682 -363.2545 91.32081 50 314.2873 315.6195 -370.0372 92.87565 51 319.8446 320.8864 -376.9068 94.46139 52 325.4937 326.2686 -383.8672 96.07808

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.13. Impuls Respons Harga Beras Philipina (RIPHI)

  Period RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 53 331.2368 331.7662 -390.9222 97.72591 54 337.0763 337.3791 -398.0756 99.40512 55 343.0144 343.1076 -405.3309 101.1160 56 349.0533 348.9522 -412.6915 102.8590 57 355.1952 354.9134 -420.1610 104.6344 58 361.4423 360.9920 -427.7428 106.4427 59 367.7967 367.1889 -435.4402 108.2844 60 374.2606 373.5050 -443.2565 110.1600 61 380.8362 379.9416 -451.1950 112.0699 62 387.5256 386.4998 -459.2590 114.0147 63 394.3309 393.1811 -467.4517 115.9949 64 401.2543 399.9868 -475.7763 118.0112 65 408.2981 406.9186 -484.2361 120.0639 66 415.4643 413.9781 -492.8343 122.1538 67 422.7554 421.1669 -501.5741 124.2814 68 430.1734 428.4870 -510.4586 126.4472 69 437.7207 435.9402 -519.4912 128.6520 70 445.3996 443.5284 -528.6749 130.8962 71 453.2125 451.2536 -538.0131 133.1806 72 461.1618 459.1180 -547.5090 135.5058 73 469.2498 467.1237 -557.1657 137.8725 74 477.4791 475.2728 -566.9867 140.2813 75 485.8522 483.5677 -576.9751 142.7329 76 494.3715 492.0106 -587.1343 145.2280 77 503.0398 500.6040 -597.4676 147.7673 78 511.8596 509.3502 -607.9784 150.3516 79 520.8336 518.2519 -618.6701 152.9817 80 529.9645 527.3114 -629.5462 155.6582 81 539.2552 536.5316 -640.6100 158.3820 82 548.7084 545.9150 -651.8652 161.1538 83 558.3270 555.4643 -663.3153 163.9745 84 568.1139 565.1824 -674.9639 166.8450 85 578.0722 575.0720 -686.8147 169.7659 86 588.2047 585.1362 -698.8713 172.7383 87 598.5146 595.3778 -711.1375 175.7631 88 609.0051 605.7999 -723.6171 178.8410 89 619.6792 616.4056 -736.3141 181.9730 90 630.5402 627.1980 -749.2322 185.1601 91 641.5914 638.1802 -762.3755 188.4032 92 652.8361 649.3557 -775.7481 191.7032 93 664.2778 660.7276 -789.3540 195.0612 94 675.9199 672.2995 -803.1974 198.4782 95 687.7659 684.0747 -817.2825 201.9551 96 699.8195 696.0567 -831.6137 205.4931 97 712.0841 708.2492 -846.1953 209.0932 98 724.5637 720.6558 -861.0318 212.7564 99 737.2618 733.2802 -876.1276 216.4840

  100 750.1825 746.1262 -891.4875 220.2769 101 763.3295 759.1977 -907.1160 224.1363 102 776.7068 772.4985 -923.0179 228.0635 103 790.3185 786.0327 -939.1980 232.0595 104 804.1687 799.8043 -955.6613 236.1255 105 818.2616 813.8175 -972.4127 240.2629

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.13. Impuls Respons Harga Beras Philipina (RIPHI)

  Period RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 106 832.6014 828.0765 -989.4573 244.4729 107 847.1925 842.5856 -1006.800 248.7566 108 862.0392 857.3492 -1024.447 253.1155 109 877.1461 872.3716 -1042.403 257.5507 110 892.5177 887.6574 -1060.673 262.0638 111 908.1586 903.2113 -1079.263 266.6559 112 924.0736 919.0378 -1098.178 271.3286 113 940.2675 935.1418 -1117.425 276.0831 114 956.7452 951.5282 -1137.009 280.9210 115 973.5116 968.2018 -1156.936 285.8437 116 990.5718 985.1677 -1177.212 290.8527 117 1007.931 1002.431 -1197.843 295.9494 118 1025.594 1019.997 -1218.836 301.1355 119 1043.567 1037.871 -1240.196 306.4125 120 1061.855 1056.058 -1261.931 311.7820 121 1080.463 1074.564 -1284.047 317.2456 122 1099.398 1093.394 -1306.549 322.8050 123 1118.664 1112.554 -1329.447 328.4618 124 1138.268 1132.050 -1352.745 334.2177 125 1158.215 1151.888 -1376.452 340.0745 126 1178.512 1172.073 -1400.574 346.0339 127 1199.164 1192.613 -1425.118 352.0978 128 1220.179 1213.512 -1450.093 358.2680 129 1241.562 1234.777 -1475.505 364.5463 130 1263.319 1256.416 -1501.363 370.9346 131 1285.458 1278.433 -1527.673 377.4349 132 1307.984 1300.836 -1554.445 384.0491

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lampiran 4.14. Impuls Respons Harga Beras Thailand (RITHA)

  Response of RITHA: Period RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 1 23.45197 101.9732 243.2376 0.000000

  2 62.76606 183.1312 250.4911 7.647193 3 82.59098 206.6196 230.0739 8.795939 4 90.98272 207.0729 207.1251 13.85325 5 95.05802 199.3791 185.3210 21.49276 6 97.47974 189.7130 164.7083 29.23997 7 98.91317 180.6925 144.8184 35.85556 8 99.52264 173.2245 125.3805 41.00116 9 99.45612 167.4039 106.3661 44.74005

  10 98.91301 162.9999 87.88044 47.26753 11 98.10771 159.6984 70.06765 48.80151 12 97.23308 157.2054 53.05813 49.54600 13 96.44264 155.2801 36.94766 49.68174 14 95.84723 153.7396 21.79356 49.36504 15 95.51904 152.4518 7.618416 48.72881 16 95.49838 151.3261 -5.583762 47.88406 17 95.80072 150.3045 -17.84105 46.92163 18 96.42320 149.3535 -29.19775 45.91406 19 97.35008 148.4580 -39.70928 44.91762 20 98.55722 147.6154 -49.43803 43.97446 21 100.0156 146.8319 -58.44994 43.11467 22 101.6941 146.1186 -66.81185 42.35833 23 103.5615 145.4895 -74.58945 41.71738 24 105.5879 144.9591 -81.84580 41.19731 25 107.7458 144.5417 -88.64032 40.79865 26 110.0105 144.2496 -95.02808 40.51828 27 112.3608 144.0936 -101.0595 40.35051 28 114.7785 144.0820 -106.7804 40.28793 29 117.2489 144.2206 -112.2315 40.32221 30 119.7601 144.5134 -117.4494 40.44459 31 122.3031 144.9619 -122.4664 40.64632 32 124.8712 145.5660 -127.3108 40.91901 33 127.4598 146.3240 -132.0074 41.25480 34 130.0662 147.2330 -136.5780 41.64649 35 132.6891 148.2891 -141.0416 42.08767 36 135.3282 149.4875 -145.4147 42.57267 37 137.9844 150.8232 -149.7119 43.09661 38 140.6590 152.2907 -153.9459 43.65531 39 143.3541 153.8845 -158.1278 44.24528 40 146.0717 155.5992 -162.2677 44.86366 41 148.8145 157.4294 -166.3744 45.50808 42 151.5850 159.3700 -170.4558 46.17670 43 154.3857 161.4162 -174.5193 46.86803 44 157.2192 163.5635 -178.5714 47.58096 45 160.0880 165.8078 -182.6181 48.31464 46 162.9944 168.1455 -186.6650 49.06848 47 165.9407 170.5732 -190.7175 49.84204 48 168.9290 173.0880 -194.7804 50.63505 49 171.9613 175.6872 -198.8584 51.44735 50 175.0395 178.3687 -202.9559 52.27888 51 178.1653 181.1306 -207.0771 53.12964

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.14. Impuls Respons Harga Beras Thailand (RITHA)

  Response of RITHA: Period RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 52 181.3404 183.9711 -211.2260 53.99967

  53 184.5662 186.8890 -215.4063 54.88907 54 187.8444 189.8831 -219.6218 55.79794 55 191.1764 192.9526 -223.8760 56.72642 56 194.5634 196.0968 -228.1722 57.67466 57 198.0069 199.3153 -232.5137 58.64280 58 201.5080 202.6076 -236.9037 59.63103 59 205.0682 205.9737 -241.3450 60.63951 60 208.6885 209.4134 -245.8408 61.66843 61 212.3703 212.9270 -250.3938 62.71796 62 216.1149 216.5145 -255.0066 63.78832 63 219.9233 220.1764 -259.6821 64.87969 64 223.7970 223.9129 -264.4226 65.99230 65 227.7371 227.7245 -269.2309 67.12637 66 231.7449 231.6119 -274.1092 68.28212 67 235.8216 235.5756 -279.0599 69.45981 68 239.9687 239.6164 -284.0855 70.65969 69 244.1873 243.7349 -289.1882 71.88202 70 248.4788 247.9320 -294.3702 73.12709 71 252.8446 252.2086 -299.6337 74.39519 72 257.2860 256.5656 -304.9810 75.68661 73 261.8044 261.0040 -310.4142 77.00169 74 266.4013 265.5248 -315.9354 78.34075 75 271.0780 270.1291 -321.5468 79.70413 76 275.8360 274.8180 -327.2505 81.09218 77 280.6767 279.5927 -333.0486 82.50527 78 285.6018 284.4544 -338.9432 83.94378 79 290.6126 289.4043 -344.9364 85.40811 80 295.7107 294.4438 -351.0303 86.89864 81 300.8978 299.5742 -357.2270 88.41580 82 306.1754 304.7969 -363.5287 89.96000 83 311.5450 310.1133 -369.9375 91.53169 84 317.0084 315.5249 -376.4555 93.13131 85 322.5673 321.0332 -383.0849 94.75932 86 328.2233 326.6397 -389.8279 96.41619 87 333.9781 332.3460 -396.6866 98.10239 88 339.8335 338.1538 -403.6634 99.81841 89 345.7913 344.0647 -410.7603 101.5648 90 351.8534 350.0803 -417.9798 103.3419 91 358.0214 356.2025 -425.3241 105.1505 92 364.2974 362.4330 -432.7956 106.9909 93 370.6832 368.7736 -440.3965 108.8638 94 377.1808 375.2262 -448.1292 110.7696 95 383.7921 381.7927 -455.9963 112.7090 96 390.5192 388.4750 -464.0001 114.6826 97 397.3640 395.2750 -472.1431 116.6908 98 404.3286 402.1949 -480.4279 118.7344 99 411.4152 409.2365 -488.8570 120.8138 100 418.6260 416.4021 -497.4330 122.9298

  101 425.9630 423.6938 -506.1586 125.0830 102 433.4285 431.1137 -515.0364 127.2740 Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.14. Impuls Respons Harga Beras Thailand (RITHA)

  Response of RITHA: Period RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 103 441.0247 438.6640 -524.0691 129.5035

  104 448.7540 446.3469 -533.2595 131.7721 105 456.6188 454.1649 -542.6105 134.0806 106 464.6212 462.1202 -552.1249 136.4296 107 472.7639 470.2152 -561.8055 138.8197 108 481.0492 478.4523 -571.6554 141.2519 109 489.4797 486.8340 -581.6775 143.7266 110 498.0579 495.3628 -591.8749 146.2448 111 506.7864 504.0413 -602.2507 148.8072 112 515.6677 512.8720 -612.8080 151.4145 113 524.7048 521.8577 -623.5500 154.0676 114 533.9001 531.0010 -634.4801 156.7671 115 543.2566 540.3047 -645.6014 159.5140 116 552.7770 549.7716 -656.9175 162.3091 117 562.4642 559.4045 -668.4316 165.1531 118 572.3211 569.2063 -680.1474 168.0471 119 582.3508 579.1800 -692.0683 170.9917 120 592.5562 589.3285 -704.1980 173.9880 121 602.9405 599.6550 -716.5400 177.0368 122 613.5067 610.1626 -729.0983 180.1390 123 624.2581 620.8543 -741.8765 183.2957 124 635.1978 631.7335 -754.8785 186.5076 125 646.3293 642.8034 -768.1083 189.7759 126 657.6558 654.0674 -781.5698 193.1014 127 669.1808 665.5288 -795.2671 196.4853 128 680.9078 677.1911 -809.2045 199.9284 129 692.8402 689.0578 -823.3859 203.4319 130 704.9818 701.1325 -837.8158 206.9968 131 717.3361 713.4189 -852.4986 210.6242 132 729.9070 725.9206 -867.4386 214.3151

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lampiran 4.15. Impuls Respons Harga Beras Vietnam (RIVIE)

  Response of RIVIE: Period RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 1 25.36913 71.28015 53.75986 180.6813

  2 61.94922 75.29298 64.50370 185.3225 3 70.36552 90.82634 47.66338 157.7631 4 63.88025 111.9637 21.18348 130.4003 5 54.02350 130.1956 -4.951314 107.9689 6 45.95244 142.8818 -27.10628 89.84824 7 41.10269 150.3708 -44.69958 75.01773 8 39.35467 153.8176 -58.24321 62.80630 9 40.10934 154.3481 -68.49988 52.81238

  10 42.71541 152.8640 -76.19419 44.76086 11 46.60495 150.0537 -81.94150 38.42134 12 51.31918 146.4407 -86.24621 33.57617 13 56.50047 142.4241 -89.51594 30.01379 14 61.87714 138.3057 -92.07635 27.53139 15 67.24866 134.3093 -94.18363 25.93962 16 72.47291 130.5949 -96.03514 25.06639 17 77.45506 127.2701 -97.77888 24.75917 18 82.13802 124.4008 -99.52184 24.88586 19 86.49416 122.0196 -101.3376 25.33451 20 90.51818 120.1338 -103.2733 26.01229 21 94.22104 118.7318 -105.3552 26.84397 22 97.62502 117.7891 -107.5942 27.76999 23 100.7596 117.2725 -109.9897 28.74455 24 103.6584 117.1439 -112.5335 29.73356 25 106.3564 117.3631 -115.2123 30.71277 26 108.8883 117.8900 -118.0101 31.66596 27 111.2874 118.6861 -120.9098 32.58332 28 113.5841 119.7154 -123.8947 33.46005 29 115.8061 120.9455 -126.9488 34.29512 30 117.9779 122.3473 -130.0580 35.09025 31 120.1202 123.8958 -133.2099 35.84903 32 122.2511 125.5696 -136.3944 36.57624 33 124.3851 127.3505 -139.6034 37.27732 34 126.5345 129.2238 -142.8306 37.95793 35 128.7088 131.1777 -146.0718 38.62367 36 130.9156 133.2027 -149.3242 39.27983 37 133.1607 135.2916 -152.5867 39.93128 38 135.4483 137.4391 -155.8590 40.58238 39 137.7815 139.6413 -159.1420 41.23693 40 140.1625 141.8957 -162.4374 41.89819 41 142.5927 144.2005 -165.7474 42.56886 42 145.0729 146.5549 -169.0747 43.25119 43 147.6037 148.9588 -172.4222 43.94695 44 150.1853 151.4122 -175.7931 44.65754 45 152.8177 153.9157 -179.1906 45.38404 46 155.5011 156.4699 -182.6180 46.12722 47 158.2353 159.0757 -186.0784 46.88764 48 161.0205 161.7341 -189.5749 47.66570 49 163.8567 164.4458 -193.1107 48.46164 50 166.7441 167.2120 -196.6885 49.27560 51 169.6831 170.0334 -200.3112 50.10765 52 172.6739 172.9110 -203.9814 50.95783

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.15. Impuls Respons Harga Beras Vietnam (RIVIE)

  Response of RIVIE: Period RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 53 175.7172 175.8458 -207.7014 51.82614

  54 178.8134 178.8384 -211.4738 52.71257 55 181.9632 181.8897 -215.3007 53.61714 56 185.1675 185.0006 -219.1842 54.53985 57 188.4269 188.1718 -223.1264 55.48074 58 191.7425 191.4040 -227.1293 56.43986 59 195.1151 194.6980 -231.1946 57.41731 60 198.5458 198.0546 -235.3242 58.41320 61 202.0357 201.4745 -239.5199 59.42766 62 205.5857 204.9586 -243.7834 60.46087 63 209.1970 208.5077 -248.1164 61.51302 64 212.8707 212.1225 -252.5205 62.58432 65 216.6080 215.8041 -256.9974 63.67501 66 220.4101 219.5532 -261.5487 64.78535 67 224.2782 223.3707 -266.1760 65.91562 68 228.2135 227.2578 -270.8810 67.06610 69 232.2172 231.2153 -275.6653 68.23711 70 236.2907 235.2442 -280.5305 69.42897 71 240.4351 239.3457 -285.4783 70.64201 72 244.6518 243.5209 -290.5103 71.87657 73 248.9420 247.7708 -295.6282 73.13301 74 253.3072 252.0967 -300.8337 74.41169 75 257.7486 256.4997 -306.1284 75.71299 76 262.2676 260.9811 -311.5141 77.03728 77 266.8657 265.5421 -316.9925 78.38497 78 271.5441 270.1841 -322.5653 79.75644 79 276.3044 274.9084 -328.2344 81.15210 80 281.1479 279.7163 -334.0015 82.57236 81 286.0762 284.6092 -339.8685 84.01766 82 291.0908 289.5886 -345.8371 85.48841 83 296.1931 294.6559 -351.9094 86.98505 84 301.3848 299.8126 -358.0871 88.50804 85 306.6673 305.0603 -364.3722 90.05782 86 312.0424 310.4004 -370.7666 91.63486 87 317.5115 315.8345 -377.2723 93.23962 88 323.0765 321.3643 -383.8914 94.87260 89 328.7389 326.9914 -390.6259 96.53426 90 334.5005 332.7175 -397.4778 98.22512 91 340.3630 338.5443 -404.4492 99.94568 92 346.3281 344.4734 -411.5423 101.6965 93 352.3978 350.5068 -418.7593 103.4780 94 358.5738 356.6462 -426.1024 105.2907 95 364.8580 362.8933 -433.5737 107.1353 96 371.2523 369.2502 -441.1757 109.0123 97 377.7586 375.7187 -448.9105 110.9222 98 384.3788 382.3007 -456.7806 112.8656 99 391.1151 388.9983 -464.7884 114.8431

  100 397.9694 395.8133 -472.9362 116.8553 101 404.9438 402.7480 -481.2266 118.9028 102 412.0404 409.8043 -489.6621 120.9862

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.15. Impuls Respons Harga Beras Vietnam (RIVIE)

  Response of RIVIE: Period RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 103 419.2613 416.9844 -498.2452 123.1061

  104 426.6087 424.2904 -506.9786 125.2632 105 434.0849 431.7246 -515.8648 127.4581 106 441.6921 439.2891 -524.9066 129.6915 107 449.4326 446.9863 -534.1067 131.9640 108 457.3087 454.8184 -543.4679 134.2764 109 465.3228 462.7879 -552.9931 136.6293 110 473.4773 470.8971 -562.6851 139.0235 111 481.7748 479.1485 -572.5468 141.4596 112 490.2176 487.5446 -582.5812 143.9385 113 498.8084 496.0878 -592.7914 146.4608 114 507.5497 504.7808 -603.1805 149.0273 115 516.4442 513.6262 -613.7516 151.6387 116 525.4946 522.6266 -624.5078 154.2960 117 534.7035 531.7848 -635.4525 156.9998 118 544.0738 541.1035 -646.5889 159.7511 119 553.6084 550.5855 -657.9204 162.5505 120 563.3100 560.2338 -669.4505 165.3990 121 573.1816 570.0511 -681.1826 168.2974 122 583.2262 580.0405 -693.1202 171.2466 123 593.4468 590.2050 -705.2670 174.2476 124 603.8465 600.5476 -717.6266 177.3011 125 614.4285 611.0715 -730.2028 180.4081 126 625.1959 621.7799 -742.9993 183.5696 127 636.1520 632.6759 -756.0201 186.7864 128 647.3001 643.7629 -769.2690 190.0597 129 658.6436 655.0442 -782.7501 193.3903 130 670.1858 666.5232 -796.4674 196.7793 131 681.9303 678.2033 -810.4251 200.2277 132 693.8806 690.0882 -824.6273 203.7365

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lampiran 4.16. Variance Decomposition Harga Beras Indonesia (RIDOM)

  Variance Decomposition of RIDOM: Period S.E. RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 1 196.6609 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000

  2 321.2368 99.69706 0.005708 0.190735 0.106498 3 415.0275 99.67791 0.090344 0.167830 0.063918 4 489.1530 99.31534 0.400986 0.122507 0.161168 5 551.0081 98.40290 0.925938 0.180786 0.490378 6 605.0241 96.92466 1.655963 0.413662 1.005717 7 653.9607 94.91979 2.593541 0.866485 1.620188 8 699.6729 92.44782 3.735255 1.563994 2.252929 9 743.4748 89.58539 5.061424 2.508734 2.844449

  10 786.3027 86.42503 6.535386 3.681602 3.357978 11 828.8010 83.06895 8.108891 5.046209 3.775952 12 871.3825 79.61949 9.729665 6.555689 4.095161 13 914.2828 76.16992 11.34830 8.159842 4.321936 14 957.6091 72.79803 12.92299 9.810979 4.468006 15 1001.383 69.56316 14.42177 11.46775 4.547317 16 1045.574 66.50630 15.82285 13.09699 4.573867 17 1090.128 63.65213 17.11349 14.67395 4.560423 18 1134.982 61.01203 18.28844 16.18162 4.517906 19 1180.078 58.58727 19.34800 17.60949 4.455240 20 1225.367 56.37192 20.29644 18.95219 4.379453 21 1270.814 54.35535 21.14051 20.20823 4.295920 22 1316.399 52.52408 21.88842 21.37887 4.208642 23 1362.114 50.86323 22.54901 22.46724 4.120523 24 1407.960 49.35753 23.13120 23.47766 4.033607 25 1453.951 47.99199 23.64362 24.41510 3.949287 26 1500.104 46.75233 24.09437 25.28484 3.868464 27 1546.443 45.62523 24.49093 26.09216 3.791675 28 1592.997 44.59851 24.84007 26.84223 3.719195 29 1639.794 43.66111 25.14784 27.53994 3.651106 30 1686.866 42.80312 25.41964 28.18988 3.587358 31 1734.245 42.01572 25.66018 28.79628 3.527813 32 1781.961 41.29109 25.87363 29.36301 3.472270 33 1830.046 40.62236 26.06358 29.89356 3.420498 34 1878.529 40.00350 26.23315 30.39111 3.372243 35 1927.440 39.42922 26.38504 30.85849 3.327249 36 1976.807 38.89490 26.52157 31.29826 3.285262 37 2026.655 38.39654 26.64473 31.71269 3.246038 38 2077.012 37.93061 26.75623 32.10381 3.209346 39 2127.901 37.49405 26.85753 32.47345 3.174973 40 2179.347 37.08419 26.94987 32.82322 3.142719 41 2231.373 36.69868 27.03433 33.15459 3.112405 42 2284.001 36.33548 27.11181 33.46885 3.083866 43 2337.253 35.99276 27.18311 33.76718 3.056955 44 2391.151 35.66893 27.24890 34.05063 3.031540 45 2445.714 35.36256 27.30976 34.32017 3.007502 46 2500.964 35.07241 27.36619 34.57667 2.984734 47 2556.921 34.79732 27.41862 34.82092 2.963142 48 2613.604 34.53629 27.46743 35.05364 2.942641 49 2671.034 34.28839 27.51296 35.27550 2.923156 50 2729.231 34.05278 27.55549 35.48711 2.904617 51 2788.215 33.82871 27.59528 35.68905 2.886964

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.16. Variance Decomposition Harga Beras Indonesia (RIDOM)

  Variance Decomposition of RIDOM: Period S.E. RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 52 2848.005 33.61547 27.63256 35.88183 2.870141

  53 2908.622 33.41242 27.66753 36.06595 2.854098 54 2970.085 33.21896 27.70038 36.24186 2.838789 55 3032.414 33.03456 27.73127 36.41000 2.824173 56 3095.631 32.85870 27.76035 36.57074 2.810211 57 3159.756 32.69091 27.78774 36.72448 2.796868 58 3224.809 32.53074 27.81358 36.87157 2.784112 59 3290.811 32.37780 27.83797 37.01232 2.771911 60 3357.784 32.23169 27.86101 37.14706 2.760238 61 3425.749 32.09205 27.88281 37.27608 2.749066 62 3494.727 31.95854 27.90343 37.39965 2.738370 63 3564.741 31.83086 27.92297 37.51804 2.728128 64 3635.812 31.70870 27.94149 37.63149 2.718317 65 3707.963 31.59178 27.95907 37.74023 2.708917 66 3781.216 31.47985 27.97575 37.84449 2.699907 67 3855.595 31.37265 27.99160 37.94448 2.691271 68 3931.123 31.26995 28.00668 38.04038 2.682990 69 4007.823 31.17154 28.02102 38.13240 2.675048 70 4085.720 31.07721 28.03467 38.22069 2.667429 71 4164.837 30.98676 28.04768 38.30545 2.660119 72 4245.199 30.90001 28.06008 38.38681 2.653103 73 4326.831 30.81679 28.07190 38.46494 2.646369 74 4409.758 30.73694 28.08319 38.53997 2.639903 75 4494.005 30.66029 28.09397 38.61205 2.633694 76 4579.600 30.58671 28.10427 38.68129 2.627731 77 4666.567 30.51605 28.11411 38.74783 2.622002 78 4754.935 30.44819 28.12353 38.81178 2.616498 79 4844.729 30.38300 28.13253 38.87326 2.611208 80 4935.978 30.32036 28.14116 38.93236 2.606123 81 5028.709 30.26017 28.14941 38.98918 2.601235 82 5122.950 30.20231 28.15732 39.04383 2.596536 83 5218.732 30.14668 28.16491 39.09639 2.592016 84 5316.082 30.09320 28.17217 39.14696 2.587670 85 5415.031 30.04177 28.17914 39.19560 2.583489 86 5515.608 29.99229 28.18583 39.24241 2.579466 87 5617.845 29.94470 28.19225 39.28746 2.575596 88 5721.772 29.89892 28.19841 39.33081 2.571872 89 5827.421 29.85486 28.20432 39.37254 2.568287 90 5934.824 29.81245 28.21000 39.41271 2.564837 91 6044.015 29.77164 28.21546 39.45139 2.561515 92 6155.025 29.73236 28.22070 39.48863 2.558317 93 6267.889 29.69454 28.22574 39.52449 2.555238 94 6382.642 29.65812 28.23058 39.55902 2.552273 95 6499.317 29.62305 28.23524 39.59229 2.549417 96 6617.950 29.58928 28.23972 39.62433 2.546667 97 6738.577 29.55675 28.24403 39.65520 2.544017 98 6861.236 29.52542 28.24818 39.68494 2.541465 99 6985.962 29.49523 28.25217 39.71359 2.539006 100 7112.794 29.46616 28.25601 39.74120 2.536636

  101 7241.770 29.43814 28.25971 39.76781 2.534353 Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.16. Variance Decomposition Harga Beras Indonesia (RIDOM)

  Variance Decomposition of RIDOM: Period S.E. RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 102 7372.930 29.41114 28.26326 39.79345 2.532153

  103 7506.312 29.38512 28.26669 39.81816 2.530032 104 7641.958 29.36004 28.26999 39.84198 2.527988 105 7779.908 29.33588 28.27317 39.86494 2.526019 106 7920.204 29.31258 28.27623 39.88707 2.524120 107 8062.888 29.29013 28.27917 39.90841 2.522289 108 8208.005 29.26848 28.28201 39.92898 2.520524 109 8355.597 29.24761 28.28475 39.94882 2.518822 110 8505.709 29.22749 28.28739 39.96795 2.517182 111 8658.387 29.20808 28.28993 39.98639 2.515600 112 8813.676 29.18937 28.29238 40.00418 2.514074 113 8971.624 29.17133 28.29474 40.02133 2.512603 114 9132.279 29.15393 28.29701 40.03787 2.511184 115 9295.689 29.13715 28.29921 40.05382 2.509815 116 9461.902 29.12097 28.30132 40.06921 2.508495 117 9630.971 29.10536 28.30336 40.08406 2.507222 118 9802.945 29.09030 28.30533 40.09838 2.505994 119 9977.877 29.07578 28.30722 40.11219 2.504810 120 10155.82 29.06177 28.30905 40.12551 2.503667 121 10336.83 29.04825 28.31082 40.13837 2.502564 122 10520.95 29.03521 28.31252 40.15077 2.501501 123 10708.25 29.02263 28.31416 40.16274 2.500475 124 10898.78 29.01049 28.31574 40.17428 2.499484 125 11092.60 28.99878 28.31727 40.18542 2.498529 126 11289.77 28.98748 28.31874 40.19617 2.497607 127 11490.34 28.97658 28.32016 40.20654 2.496718 128 11694.38 28.96606 28.32153 40.21655 2.495860 129 11901.95 28.95590 28.32286 40.22621 2.495031 130 12113.11 28.94611 28.32413 40.23553 2.494232 131 12327.93 28.93665 28.32536 40.24453 2.493461 132 12546.47 28.92753 28.32655 40.25321 2.492716

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lampiran 4.17. Variance Decomposition Harga Beras Philipina (RIPHI)

  Variance Decomposition of RIPHI: Period S.E. RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 1 256.2942 0.145982 99.85402 0.000000 0.000000

  2 422.5044 0.612230 99.02141 0.292775 0.073590 3 546.8715 1.260307 98.02153 0.603479 0.114684 4 641.4708 2.161151 96.87348 0.857108 0.108259 5 716.0783 3.345701 95.49915 1.067211 0.087941 6 777.6360 4.788393 93.87010 1.260270 0.081241 7 830.7748 6.423822 92.01240 1.460531 0.103248 8 878.4936 8.170936 89.98114 1.688107 0.159819 9 922.7233 9.951788 87.83791 1.959601 0.250701

  10 964.7211 11.70164 85.63808 2.288533 0.371747 11 1005.324 13.37228 83.42586 2.685289 0.516566 12 1045.106 14.93138 81.23392 3.156887 0.677816 13 1084.470 16.36009 79.08493 3.706813 0.848172 14 1123.706 17.65021 76.99372 4.335069 1.021000 15 1163.026 18.80143 74.96936 5.038468 1.190741 16 1202.582 19.81896 73.01684 5.811119 1.353080 17 1242.487 20.71161 71.13840 6.645060 1.504935 18 1282.821 21.49032 69.33441 7.530922 1.644346 19 1323.637 22.16700 67.60410 8.458591 1.770306 20 1364.970 22.75373 65.94593 9.417778 1.882563 21 1406.843 23.26217 64.35791 10.39850 1.981429 22 1449.267 23.70320 62.83777 11.39142 2.067613 23 1492.247 24.08672 61.38309 12.38811 2.142073 24 1535.783 24.42154 59.99141 13.38115 2.205902 25 1579.874 24.71533 58.66022 14.36421 2.260244 26 1624.517 24.97470 57.38704 15.33203 2.306229 27 1669.711 25.20527 56.16945 16.28035 2.344934 28 1715.454 25.41173 55.00510 17.20582 2.377352 29 1761.747 25.59800 53.89168 18.10594 2.404388 30 1808.593 25.76728 52.82700 18.97888 2.426843 31 1855.996 25.92221 51.80893 19.82344 2.445422 32 1903.962 26.06491 50.83544 20.63891 2.460738 33 1952.499 26.19709 49.90458 21.42501 2.473317 34 2001.616 26.32015 49.01448 22.18176 2.483607 35 2051.324 26.43519 48.16335 22.90948 2.491989 36 2101.635 26.54311 47.34946 23.60865 2.498781 37 2152.561 26.64463 46.57119 24.27993 2.504253 38 2204.118 26.74034 45.82695 24.92408 2.508627 39 2256.320 26.83074 45.11523 25.54194 2.512090 40 2309.181 26.91621 44.43460 26.13440 2.514794 41 2362.718 26.99711 43.78365 26.70238 2.516867 42 2416.947 27.07374 43.16105 27.24680 2.518414 43 2471.886 27.14635 42.56554 27.76859 2.519522 44 2527.550 27.21519 41.99588 28.26867 2.520262 45 2583.957 27.28046 41.45090 28.74794 2.520695 46 2641.126 27.34237 40.92949 29.20727 2.520868 47 2699.073 27.40110 40.43056 29.64752 2.520825 48 2757.817 27.45683 39.95309 30.06949 2.520598 49 2817.376 27.50972 39.49608 30.47398 2.520217 50 2877.769 27.55993 39.05861 30.86175 2.519706 51 2939.014 27.60760 38.63978 31.23353 2.519087

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.17. Variance Decomposition Harga Beras Philipina (RIPHI)

  Variance Decomposition of RIPHI: Period S.E. RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 52 3001.131 27.65289 38.23871 31.59002 2.518376

  53 3064.138 27.69592 37.85461 31.93188 2.517590 54 3128.056 27.73683 37.48669 32.25974 2.516742 55 3192.903 27.77573 37.13420 32.57423 2.515843 56 3258.701 27.81274 36.79644 32.87592 2.514903 57 3325.469 27.84797 36.47274 33.16536 2.513932 58 3393.227 27.88152 36.16245 33.44310 2.512936 59 3461.998 27.91348 35.86496 33.70964 2.511924 60 3531.801 27.94395 35.57970 33.96545 2.510900 61 3602.658 27.97301 35.30610 34.21102 2.509870 62 3674.591 28.00074 35.04366 34.44676 2.508839 63 3747.623 28.02721 34.79186 34.67312 2.507811 64 3821.774 28.05249 34.55023 34.89049 2.506788 65 3897.069 28.07665 34.31833 35.09925 2.505775 66 3973.531 28.09974 34.09572 35.29977 2.504774 67 4051.181 28.12183 33.88198 35.49240 2.503787 68 4130.046 28.14297 33.67675 35.67747 2.502815 69 4210.148 28.16320 33.47963 35.85531 2.501861 70 4291.512 28.18257 33.29029 36.02621 2.500925 71 4374.163 28.20113 33.10839 36.19047 2.500010 72 4458.126 28.21891 32.93361 36.34837 2.499114 73 4543.427 28.23596 32.76564 36.50017 2.498240 74 4630.092 28.25230 32.60419 36.64612 2.497388 75 4718.148 28.26798 32.44899 36.78647 2.496557 76 4807.620 28.28302 32.29979 36.92145 2.495749 77 4898.537 28.29745 32.15631 37.05127 2.494962 78 4990.927 28.31131 32.01834 37.17615 2.494198 79 5084.816 28.32462 31.88563 37.29629 2.493456 80 5180.235 28.33739 31.75798 37.41189 2.492735 81 5277.212 28.34967 31.63518 37.52312 2.492036 82 5375.776 28.36146 31.51702 37.63016 2.491358 83 5475.958 28.37280 31.40331 37.73319 2.490701 84 5577.787 28.38369 31.29389 37.83235 2.490064 85 5681.296 28.39417 31.18857 37.92781 2.489448 86 5786.514 28.40424 31.08719 38.01972 2.488851 87 5893.475 28.41393 30.98959 38.10821 2.488273 88 6002.211 28.42325 30.89562 38.19342 2.487714 89 6112.755 28.43221 30.80515 38.27547 2.487174 90 6225.139 28.44084 30.71802 38.35450 2.486651 91 6339.399 28.44913 30.63411 38.43061 2.486145 92 6455.570 28.45712 30.55329 38.50393 2.485656 93 6573.685 28.46481 30.47544 38.57456 2.485183 94 6693.781 28.47221 30.40045 38.64261 2.484726 95 6815.895 28.47934 30.32820 38.70817 2.484285 96 6940.063 28.48621 30.25860 38.77134 2.483859 97 7066.323 28.49281 30.19153 38.83221 2.483446 98 7194.713 28.49918 30.12690 38.89088 2.483048 99 7325.273 28.50531 30.06461 38.94741 2.482664 100 7458.041 28.51122 30.00458 39.00190 2.482292

  101 7593.057 28.51691 29.94673 39.05443 2.481934 102 7730.364 28.52240 29.89096 39.10506 2.481587 Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.17. Variance Decomposition Harga Beras Philipina (RIPHI)

  Variance Decomposition of RIPHI: Period S.E. RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 103 7870.001 28.52768 29.83720 39.15387 2.481253

  104 8012.012 28.53277 29.78538 39.20092 2.480930 105 8156.439 28.53768 29.73542 39.24629 2.480618 106 8303.326 28.54241 29.68725 39.29003 2.480317 107 8452.718 28.54697 29.64080 39.33220 2.480026 108 8604.659 28.55137 29.59602 39.37287 2.479745 109 8759.196 28.55560 29.55283 39.41209 2.479474 110 8916.375 28.55969 29.51119 39.44991 2.479213 111 9076.243 28.56363 29.47102 39.48639 2.478960 112 9238.850 28.56743 29.43229 39.52157 2.478716 113 9404.244 28.57109 29.39493 39.55550 2.478481 114 9572.475 28.57462 29.35889 39.58823 2.478254 115 9743.594 28.57803 29.32413 39.61980 2.478034 116 9917.653 28.58132 29.29061 39.65026 2.477822 117 10094.70 28.58448 29.25826 39.67964 2.477618 118 10274.80 28.58754 29.22706 39.70798 2.477421 119 10458.00 28.59049 29.19696 39.73532 2.477230 120 10644.35 28.59333 29.16792 39.76170 2.477046 121 10833.91 28.59608 29.13990 39.78715 2.476869 122 11026.75 28.59873 29.11286 39.81171 2.476697 123 11222.91 28.60128 29.08678 39.83541 2.476532 124 11422.45 28.60374 29.06161 39.85827 2.476372 125 11625.45 28.60612 29.03732 39.88034 2.476218 126 11831.95 28.60842 29.01389 39.90163 2.476069 127 12042.02 28.61063 28.99127 39.92217 2.475926 128 12255.73 28.61277 28.96945 39.94200 2.475787 129 12473.13 28.61483 28.94838 39.96113 2.475653 130 12694.30 28.61682 28.92806 39.97960 2.475524 131 12919.30 28.61874 28.90844 39.99742 2.475399 132 13148.20 28.62059 28.88951 40.01462 2.475279

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lampiran 4.18. Variance Decomposition Harga Beras Thailand (RITHA)

  Variance Decomposition of RITHA: Period S.E. RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 1 264.7887 0.784440 14.83110 84.38446 0.000000

  2 412.7880 2.634819 25.78471 71.54615 0.034320 3 522.4158 4.144407 31.74109 64.06473 0.049776 4 605.9439 5.335077 35.27170 59.30396 0.089267 5 671.3880 6.350298 37.54941 55.92510 0.175192 6 724.0435 7.272832 39.15189 53.26156 0.313726 7 767.4182 8.135226 40.39512 50.97209 0.497562 8 803.8927 8.946410 41.45589 48.88413 0.713569 9 835.1494 9.707468 42.42880 46.91559 0.948144

  10 862.4294 10.41846 43.35920 45.03284 1.189495 11 886.6816 11.08058 44.26364 43.22754 1.428238 12 908.6485 11.69639 45.14259 41.50369 1.657338 13 928.9179 12.26943 45.98834 39.87039 1.871847 14 947.9573 12.80383 46.78981 38.33777 2.068594 15 966.1371 13.30397 47.53541 36.91475 2.245863 16 983.7502 13.77422 48.21473 35.60796 2.403089 17 1001.026 14.21878 48.81939 34.42126 2.540570 18 1018.144 14.64157 49.34343 33.35577 2.659222 19 1035.244 15.04617 49.78335 32.41012 2.760358 20 1052.431 15.43572 50.13791 31.58084 2.845523 21 1069.789 15.81293 50.40789 30.86283 2.916355 22 1087.382 16.18003 50.59570 30.24977 2.974496 23 1105.258 16.53883 50.70504 29.73461 3.021521 24 1123.456 16.89068 50.74055 29.30986 3.058898 25 1142.006 17.23659 50.70755 28.96790 3.087965 26 1160.930 17.57717 50.61172 28.70120 3.109922 27 1180.249 17.91277 50.45893 28.50247 3.125828 28 1199.978 18.24351 50.25508 28.36480 3.136611 29 1220.129 18.56931 50.00593 28.28169 3.143072 30 1240.714 18.88995 49.71703 28.24712 3.145904 31 1261.743 19.20514 49.39365 28.25552 3.145695 32 1283.222 19.51451 49.04073 28.30181 3.142949 33 1305.160 19.81771 48.66285 28.38135 3.138091 34 1327.564 20.11436 48.26425 28.48992 3.131481 35 1350.439 20.40412 47.84877 28.62370 3.123421 36 1373.792 20.68669 47.41990 28.77924 3.114169 37 1397.628 20.96183 46.98080 28.95343 3.103938 38 1421.951 21.22933 46.53430 29.14346 3.092910 39 1446.768 21.48907 46.08288 29.34681 3.081239 40 1472.084 21.74095 45.62879 29.56120 3.069055 41 1497.902 21.98494 45.17398 29.78461 3.056469 42 1524.230 22.22107 44.72016 30.01520 3.043574 43 1551.070 22.44938 44.26882 30.25135 3.030453 44 1578.430 22.66998 43.82124 30.49160 3.017176 45 1606.314 22.88300 43.37854 30.73466 3.003802 46 1634.729 23.08858 42.94165 30.97938 2.990386 47 1663.679 23.28690 42.51137 31.22475 2.976972 48 1693.170 23.47816 42.08837 31.46986 2.963603 49 1723.211 23.66256 41.67319 31.71394 2.950312 50 1753.805 23.84030 41.26628 31.95629 2.937131 51 1784.962 24.01160 40.86800 32.19632 2.924088 52 1816.687 24.17667 40.47860 32.43351 2.911206

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.18. Variance Decomposition Harga Beras Thailand (RITHA)

  Variance Decomposition of RITHA: Period S.E. RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 53 1848.987 24.33575 40.09832 32.66743 2.898505

  54 1881.872 24.48903 39.72727 32.89769 2.886004 55 1915.349 24.63673 39.36556 33.12399 2.873718 56 1949.425 24.77906 39.01323 33.34605 2.861659 57 1984.110 24.91622 38.67027 33.56367 2.849839 58 2019.413 25.04840 38.33666 33.77667 2.838266 59 2055.342 25.17579 38.01234 33.98492 2.826948 60 2091.907 25.29857 37.69722 34.18833 2.815889 61 2129.119 25.41691 37.39118 34.38681 2.805094 62 2166.986 25.53099 37.09411 34.58033 2.794565 63 2205.519 25.64097 36.80586 34.76887 2.784304 64 2244.730 25.74700 36.52627 34.95242 2.774311 65 2284.628 25.84922 36.25518 35.13101 2.764585 66 2325.225 25.94779 35.99242 35.30466 2.755126 67 2366.533 26.04284 35.73780 35.47343 2.745931 68 2408.564 26.13450 35.49114 35.63736 2.736998 69 2451.328 26.22290 35.25225 35.79652 2.728323 70 2494.839 26.30816 35.02094 35.95100 2.719902 71 2539.110 26.39039 34.79702 36.10087 2.711731 72 2584.152 26.46970 34.58028 36.24621 2.703805 73 2629.980 26.54621 34.37055 36.38711 2.696121 74 2676.606 26.62002 34.16762 36.52368 2.688673 75 2724.044 26.69122 33.97131 36.65601 2.681455 76 2772.309 26.75991 33.78143 36.78420 2.674463 77 2821.414 26.82618 33.59779 36.90835 2.667691 78 2871.374 26.89011 33.42020 37.02856 2.661133 79 2922.203 26.95181 33.24848 37.14493 2.654784 80 2973.918 27.01133 33.08247 37.25756 2.648639 81 3026.533 27.06877 32.92198 37.36656 2.642692 82 3080.064 27.12420 32.76684 37.47203 2.636938 83 3134.526 27.17768 32.61689 37.57406 2.631371 84 3189.937 27.22930 32.47196 37.67276 2.625985 85 3246.312 27.27911 32.33190 37.76822 2.620776 86 3303.669 27.32718 32.19654 37.86054 2.615739 87 3362.024 27.37358 32.06575 37.94981 2.610868 88 3421.396 27.41835 31.93936 38.03613 2.606158 89 3481.802 27.46157 31.81725 38.11958 2.601604 90 3543.259 27.50329 31.69926 38.20025 2.597201 91 3605.787 27.54355 31.58527 38.27823 2.592946 92 3669.405 27.58242 31.47514 38.35361 2.588832 93 3734.131 27.61993 31.36875 38.42646 2.584857 94 3799.984 27.65615 31.26597 38.49687 2.581014 95 3866.986 27.69110 31.16668 38.56491 2.577301 96 3935.155 27.72485 31.07077 38.63067 2.573712 97 4004.513 27.75742 30.97812 38.69421 2.570244 98 4075.080 27.78887 30.88863 38.75560 2.566894 99 4146.877 27.81923 30.80219 38.81492 2.563656

  100 4219.926 27.84854 30.71869 38.87224 2.560528 101 4294.250 27.87684 30.63804 38.92762 2.557506 102 4369.870 27.90416 30.56014 38.98112 2.554586 103 4446.809 27.93053 30.48490 39.03280 2.551765 104 4525.091 27.95600 30.41223 39.08274 2.549039

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.18. Variance Decomposition Harga Beras Thailand (RITHA)

  Variance Decomposition of RITHA: Period S.E. RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 105 4604.738 27.98058 30.34204 39.13098 2.546406

  106 4685.776 28.00432 30.27424 39.17757 2.543863 107 4768.228 28.02724 30.20877 39.22259 2.541406 108 4852.120 28.04937 30.14553 39.26607 2.539033 109 4937.476 28.07073 30.08445 39.30808 2.536740 110 5024.323 28.09136 30.02546 39.34865 2.534526 111 5112.686 28.11128 29.96849 39.38784 2.532387 112 5202.593 28.13052 29.91347 39.42570 2.530320 113 5294.070 28.14909 29.86032 39.46226 2.528324 114 5387.145 28.16702 29.80900 39.49758 2.526397 115 5481.846 28.18434 29.75943 39.53170 2.524535 116 5578.201 28.20106 29.71156 39.56465 2.522736 117 5676.240 28.21721 29.66532 39.59647 2.520999 118 5775.993 28.23280 29.62067 39.62721 2.519321 119 5877.488 28.24785 29.57755 39.65690 2.517701 120 5980.758 28.26239 29.53590 39.68558 2.516135 121 6085.833 28.27643 29.49567 39.71327 2.514623 122 6192.744 28.28999 29.45682 39.74002 2.513163 123 6301.525 28.30308 29.41931 39.76586 2.511753 124 6412.208 28.31572 29.38307 39.79082 2.510391 125 6524.826 28.32793 29.34808 39.81492 2.509075 126 6639.413 28.33972 29.31428 39.83819 2.507805 127 6756.004 28.35111 29.28164 39.86068 2.506578 128 6874.635 28.36210 29.25012 39.88239 2.505392 129 6995.340 28.37272 29.21967 39.90336 2.504248 130 7118.156 28.38297 29.19027 39.92362 2.503142 131 7243.121 28.39287 29.16187 39.94318 2.502074 132 7370.272 28.40244 29.13445 39.96207 2.501043

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lampiran 4.19. Variance Decomposition Harga Beras Vietnam (RIVIE)

  Variance Decomposition of RIVIE: Period S.E. RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 1 203.1263 1.559836 12.31416 7.004611 79.12139

  2 298.7845 5.019815 12.04170 7.898147 75.04034 3 360.0471 7.276340 14.65613 7.191518 70.87601 4 404.6029 8.254737 19.26361 5.968955 66.51270 5 441.8764 8.415587 24.83223 5.016986 61.73520 6 476.0137 8.183740 30.40806 4.647469 56.76074 7 508.4442 7.826566 35.39930 4.846403 51.92773 8 539.5008 7.483542 39.56989 5.469978 47.47659 9 569.1877 7.219837 42.90333 6.362602 43.51423

  10 597.4744 7.063519 45.48301 7.400719 40.05275 11 624.3832 7.024947 47.42268 8.498859 37.05352 12 649.9990 7.105518 48.83430 9.602771 34.45741 13 674.4550 7.301338 49.81625 10.68055 32.20187 14 697.9132 7.604826 50.45084 11.71520 30.22913 15 720.5468 8.005620 50.80559 12.69932 28.48947 16 742.5268 8.491311 50.93559 13.63137 26.94172 17 764.0136 9.048189 50.88582 14.51333 25.55266 18 785.1515 9.661969 50.69318 15.34908 24.29578 19 806.0670 10.31848 50.38806 16.14338 23.15008 20 826.8686 11.00423 49.99557 16.90128 22.09892 21 847.6479 11.70689 49.53645 17.62763 21.12903 22 868.4812 12.41555 49.02783 18.32689 20.22973 23 889.4318 13.12090 48.48379 19.00293 19.39238 24 910.5517 13.81527 47.91586 19.65902 18.60984 25 931.8838 14.49259 47.33339 20.29781 17.87621 26 953.4628 15.14825 46.74390 20.92134 17.18651 27 975.3171 15.77896 46.15339 21.53111 16.53654 28 997.4698 16.38256 45.56658 22.12815 15.92270 29 1019.940 16.95786 44.98712 22.71310 15.34192 30 1042.742 17.50442 44.41779 23.28628 14.79151 31 1065.889 18.02242 43.86066 23.84775 14.26917 32 1089.392 18.51250 43.31720 24.39744 13.77286 33 1113.258 18.97565 42.78845 24.93512 13.30079 34 1137.495 19.41305 42.27505 25.46053 12.85137 35 1162.109 19.82606 41.77738 25.97335 12.42320 36 1187.105 20.21611 41.29557 26.47331 12.01501 37 1212.490 20.58461 40.82959 26.96014 11.62565 38 1238.267 20.93301 40.37929 27.43363 11.25406 39 1264.443 21.26266 39.94442 27.89362 10.89930 40 1291.022 21.57487 39.52466 28.34001 10.56046 41 1318.009 21.87085 39.11963 28.77278 10.23674 42 1345.411 22.15174 38.72896 29.19195 9.927353 43 1373.232 22.41858 38.35222 29.59760 9.631593 44 1401.480 22.67234 37.98899 29.98989 9.348781 45 1430.160 22.91389 37.63885 30.36898 9.078283 46 1459.280 23.14403 37.30136 30.73511 8.819500 47 1488.847 23.36348 36.97613 31.08853 8.571864 48 1518.868 23.57290 36.66272 31.42954 8.334840 49 1549.352 23.77289 36.36075 31.75844 8.107921 50 1580.307 23.96401 36.06981 32.07555 7.890624 51 1611.741 24.14675 35.78954 32.38122 7.682495

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.19. Variance Decomposition Harga Beras Vietnam (RIVIE)

  Variance Decomposition of RIVIE: Period S.E. RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 53 1676.083 24.48890 35.25948 32.95958 7.292028

  54 1709.009 24.64912 35.00900 33.23299 7.108892 55 1742.451 24.80260 34.76774 33.49634 6.933322 56 1776.419 24.94966 34.53539 33.74998 6.764968 57 1810.922 25.09062 34.31163 33.99425 6.603496 58 1845.972 25.22578 34.09614 34.22949 6.448593 59 1881.579 25.35540 33.88862 34.45602 6.299960 60 1917.752 25.47974 33.68879 34.67415 6.157311 61 1954.504 25.59905 33.49636 34.88421 6.020379 62 1991.845 25.71356 33.31105 35.08649 5.888907 63 2029.786 25.82347 33.13260 35.28127 5.762653 64 2068.338 25.92900 32.96076 35.46885 5.641386 65 2107.514 26.03034 32.79528 35.64949 5.524888 66 2147.325 26.12767 32.63593 35.82345 5.412952 67 2187.783 26.22118 32.48246 35.99099 5.305378 68 2228.900 26.31102 32.33466 36.15234 5.201980 69 2270.689 26.39735 32.19231 36.30776 5.102579 70 2313.162 26.48033 32.05522 36.45745 5.007006 71 2356.333 26.56010 31.92317 36.60163 4.915098 72 2400.213 26.63680 31.79598 36.74052 4.826702 73 2444.817 26.71055 31.67346 36.87432 4.741671 74 2490.158 26.78148 31.55544 37.00321 4.659866 75 2536.249 26.84970 31.44175 37.12739 4.581153 76 2583.105 26.91534 31.33221 37.24704 4.505407 77 2630.739 26.97850 31.22668 37.36232 4.432506 78 2679.167 27.03927 31.12500 37.47339 4.362334 79 2728.402 27.09776 31.02703 37.58043 4.294782 80 2778.459 27.15406 30.93262 37.68357 4.229744 81 2829.355 27.20826 30.84165 37.78297 4.167120 82 2881.103 27.26044 30.75397 37.87877 4.106813 83 2933.720 27.31069 30.66948 37.97110 4.048734 84 2987.222 27.35908 30.58804 38.06009 3.992792 85 3041.624 27.40568 30.50954 38.14588 3.938906 86 3096.944 27.45057 30.43387 38.22856 3.886993 87 3153.198 27.49381 30.36094 38.30828 3.836979 88 3210.402 27.53547 30.29062 38.38512 3.788789 89 3268.575 27.57560 30.22284 38.45921 3.742352 90 3327.733 27.61428 30.15748 38.53064 3.697602 91 3387.896 27.65155 30.09447 38.59951 3.654474 92 3449.080 27.68746 30.03372 38.66591 3.612905 93 3511.304 27.72208 29.97513 38.72995 3.572838 94 3574.588 27.75545 29.91864 38.79169 3.534214 95 3638.950 27.78761 29.86417 38.85124 3.496980 96 3704.410 27.81862 29.81163 38.90867 3.461082 97 3770.987 27.84851 29.76096 38.96405 3.426472 98 3838.701 27.87733 29.71209 39.01747 3.393100 99 3907.574 27.90512 29.66496 39.06899 3.360921

  100 3977.626 27.93192 29.61950 39.11869 3.329889 101 4048.878 27.95776 29.57565 39.16662 3.299964 102 4121.351 27.98268 29.53335 39.21287 3.271102 103 4195.068 28.00672 29.49255 39.25747 3.243267

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.19. Variance Decomposition Harga Beras Vietnam (RIVIE)

  Variance Decomposition of RIVIE: Period S.E. RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE 104 4270.050 28.02990 29.45318 39.30050 3.216419

  105 4346.321 28.05225 29.41521 39.34202 3.190522 106 4423.903 28.07382 29.37857 39.38207 3.165542 107 4502.820 28.09462 29.34322 39.42071 3.141444 108 4583.096 28.11469 29.30912 39.45799 3.118198 109 4664.755 28.13405 29.27622 39.49397 3.095771 110 4747.821 28.15272 29.24447 39.52868 3.074134 111 4832.320 28.17074 29.21383 39.56217 3.053259 112 4918.277 28.18813 29.18427 39.59449 3.033118 113 5005.718 28.20490 29.15574 39.62567 3.013684 114 5094.670 28.22108 29.12821 39.65577 2.994932 115 5185.159 28.23670 29.10165 39.68481 2.976837 116 5277.212 28.25177 29.07601 39.71284 2.959377 117 5370.859 28.26631 29.05127 39.73989 2.942527 118 5466.126 28.28035 29.02739 39.76599 2.926266 119 5563.042 28.29389 29.00435 39.79119 2.910573 120 5661.637 28.30696 28.98211 39.81551 2.895429 121 5761.941 28.31957 28.96064 39.83898 2.880812 122 5863.984 28.33175 28.93992 39.86163 2.866705 123 5967.796 28.34350 28.91992 39.88349 2.853090 124 6073.410 28.35484 28.90062 39.90460 2.839949 125 6180.856 28.36578 28.88198 39.92497 2.827264 126 6290.167 28.37635 28.86400 39.94463 2.815021 127 6401.377 28.38655 28.84663 39.96362 2.803203 128 6514.519 28.39639 28.82987 39.98194 2.791795 129 6629.626 28.40589 28.81370 39.99963 2.780784 130 6746.735 28.41506 28.79808 40.01670 2.770154 131 6865.879 28.42392 28.78300 40.03319 2.759893 132 6987.096 28.43247 28.76845 40.04910 2.749987

  Cholesky Ordering: RIDOM RIPHI RITHA RIVIE

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